Category: Soybeans

Record production: Global soybean meal output in 2025/26 is forecast to exceed 290 million tonnes, up 7.9 million tonnes year-on-year and well above the 10-year average. Bearish pricing: Analysts view current soybean meal prices as overvalued, with downside risk from record opening stocks and strong Argentine export flows. Demand expansion: Global consumption is projected to reach a…

Bullish (Crush Margins): Domestic soybean processing is projected to surge 51.4% above the five-year average to 2.9 million tons in 2025/26, supported by export duties that redirect beans to local crushers. Bearish (Raw Bean Exports): Soybean production is set to fall about 30% year-on-year to 5 million tons, tightening regional availability of Ukrainian raw soybeans…

US Soybean Crushing Hits Record Pace; Export Decline Builds Domestic Inventories Record US crush: Soybean crushing volumes are projected to reach a record 71 million tonnes in 2025/26, up from 66.5 million tonnes in 2024/25, with daily crush rates hitting an all-time high. Weak export performance: US soybean exports have fallen 11.4 million tonnes year-on-year…

Bearish for Argentine exports: February soybean meal shipments fell 27% month-on-month and 34% year-on-year, with cumulative MY 2025/26 exports lagging last season by 910,000 tonnes. Demand softness: EU and Asian purchases declined notably, indicating weaker import demand from key destinations despite higher buying from Turkey and Indonesia. Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea meals:…

Deal Size: South Korea secured 125,000 tons of U.S. non-GM soybeans for April 2026–April 2027 delivery. Price Range: Main volume priced between $235.97 and $258.20/ton C&F, plus 25,000 tons at $251/ton C&F. Logistics Mix: 100,000 tons to move in containers; 25,000 tons has optional bulk shipment. Market Impact: Neutral-to-bearish for Black Sea soybeans as U.S.…

Operational: Brazil has shifted soybean sampling for China-bound cargoes from government inspectors to exporter-hired shipping inspection companies. Trade Flows: The change is intended to reduce inspection bottlenecks and normalize Brazil-China soybean trade after recent disruptions. Market Impact: Faster Brazilian exports marginally increase competitive pressure on Black Sea soybean suppliers targeting Chinese demand. Brazil Adjusts Soybean…

Bullish: Ukrainian soybean export bids have climbed to USD 450-455/t CPT port, a 16-month high, supported by strong global vegetable oil and energy-linked markets. Bearish: Growing South American supply is pushing regional soybean prices lower, potentially capping further upside for Ukrainian export values. Market Update Ukrainian soybean export bid prices are holding at USD 450-455/t…

Export rally: Ukrainian soybean export prices have risen by $60-70/MT this season, with further gains possible toward a $100/MT seasonal increase. Supply squeeze risk: Domestic stocks may fall below 1 MMT by May, forcing processors to bid aggressively through the harvest gap. Premium positioning: Ukrainian origin is trading at a premium to Brazilian soybeans in…

Record exports: Russia shipped 8,500 tons of soybean flour in 2025, a new all-time high worth $4 million. China-led demand: China accounted for over 70% of volumes, reinforcing strong external demand for Russian soybean products. Capacity growth: A 70% jump over the 2014 peak highlights expanding crushing capacity and value-added processing. Neutral to mildly bullish…

Bullish (Black Sea): Brazil-China flow disruption may shift Chinese demand toward Black Sea soybeans and protein meals, supporting regional FOB prices. Bearish (Brazil): Stricter Brazilian inspection rules have frozen trader buying interest, stalling Brazil-China soybean shipments and pressuring local basis. Cargill Suspends Brazil-China Soybean Shipments Cargill has halted soybean exports from Brazil to China following…