Category: Rapeseeds

Bullish: Ukrainian domestic rapeseed bids rallied to UAH 22,600–23,700/t EXW on hryvnia weakness, supporting farmer selling and internal demand. Bearish: EU rapeseed import demand slid 43% y/y to 1.85 MMT in H1 2025/26, sharply limiting export opportunities for Ukrainian origin. Neutral-to-bearish: Prospective China–Canada canola duty cuts may reshape global flows, but seasonal oversupply and strong…

Russian Rapeseed Oil Exports Surge 33% in 2025, China Dominates Purchases Export Growth: Russian rapeseed oil exports rose 33% year-on-year to 106,400 tons in 2025, up from 79,800 tons in 2024. China’s Dominance: China purchased 76,600 tons, accounting for 72% of total Russian rapeseed oil exports. Market Diversification: Exports reached 18 countries, with Tunisia and…

Record Output: Russia’s 2025 rapeseed harvest hit a record 5.57 million tons, up 19.6% year-on-year on the back of larger sown area and higher yields. Siberian Strength: Siberian regions led growth, with the top five producers contributing 38.7% of total output and Altai Krai production jumping nearly 49%. Price Impact: The supply surge is Neutral…

Policy Extension: Ukraine prolonged the export duty exemption application deadline for rapeseed and soybean producers to February 1, 2026. Stricter Oversight: Monthly monitoring now compares export volumes with State Agricultural Registry data, targeting only actual producers. Revenue Allocation: Tariff proceeds will fund frontline agricultural regions, processing, greenhouses, horticulture, and war risk insurance. Market Impact: Neutral…

Export prices edge higher: Ukrainian rapeseed export values strengthened to USD 545/t CPT-port amid tight EU supplies and farmer selling restraint. Crush margins under pressure: Domestic processing bids fell to UAH 23,000–24,000/t CPT as plants face weaker margins and shift toward sunflower and soybean. Forward curve turns discounted: 2026 harvest forward prices are about USD…

Export Growth: Russian rapeseed oil exports reached 1.4 million tons in Jan–Nov 2025 (+29% y/y), with export value rising 45% to $1.4 billion. China Demand: China accounts for 88% of Russian rapeseed oil export value, importing over $1.2 billion during the period. Global Ranking: Russia remains the world’s second-largest rapeseed oil exporter behind Canada, ahead…

Neutral to slightly bearish: Spring frost during flowering sharply reduced winter rapeseed yields in Ryazan, highlighting weather risks for European Russia. Financial impact: Ingosstrakh paid 11.4 million rubles in insurance compensation for the damaged winter rapeseed crop. Risk management: The event may influence regional planting decisions and demand for crop insurance and other hedging tools.…

Bearish for prices: Moldova’s rapeseed exports to the EU surged 3.25x year-on-year, lifting its share of EU imports from 3.2% to 15% and increasing supply for European crushers. Supportive for basis/logistics: Heavy dependence on road freight (53%) and Romania–Bulgaria routes raises the risk of border bottlenecks, which could firm local basis levels despite ample supply.…

Bearish: EU rapeseed meal prices dropped to $216/tonne FOB Hamburg as of December 9, down 10% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year amid oversupply. Bearish: EU rapeseed meal imports surged to 432,500 tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (as of December 7), more than double last year, with Canada supplying 324,800 tonnes after zero shipments a year…

Exports holding steady: Ukraine shipped 52,000 tonnes of rapeseed by December 8, with full-month exports forecast at 105,000–150,000 tonnes. Stable domestic pricing: Spot values remain around $550–560/tonne, with processors paying UAH 24,000–24,500/tonne amid tightness in alternative oilseeds. Forward curve developing: Initial 2026 forward contracts are emerging at $430–435/tonne CPT port for July–August shipments, indicating a…