Category: Rapeseeds

Bullish: Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports surged 70% in July–December 2025/26 to 340,000 tonnes, supported by higher domestic crushing of 800,000 tonnes and strong Chinese demand. Bearish: EU imports collapsed amid Canadian competition, while weak domestic consumption and the risk of China reverting to Canadian supplies create structural downside for margins and export demand. China Overtakes…

Bearish Romanian rapeseed: 2026 yield outlook cut back to long-term average despite record area, as warm-wet conditions followed by snow heighten disease risks and uneven plant development. Supportive EU prices: Potential Romanian yield losses could tighten regional rapeseed supply and underpin EU rapeseed values. Mixed Russian outlook: Strong 2025 production and surging Chinese demand are…

Bullish: Russia’s December 2025 ag exports to China hit a record $1+ billion, led by $215 million in rapeseed oil, with 2025 production and export volumes forecast to jump 20% and 29.7% year-on-year. Bearish: China’s tariff cut on Canadian canola from 84% to 15% and resumption of imports pushed Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures down 2.4%,…

First exports to China: Kemerovo Oblast shipped 350 tons of rapeseed oil to China in 2025, opening a new export channel. Major processing expansion: Rusagro’s new Kuzbass plant is set to process ~1 million tons of rapeseed annually by 2027, yielding 600–700 thousand tons of oil. Production growth target: Regional authorities plan to increase rapeseed…

Bearish supply shock: Australian canola output reached 7.65 million tonnes in 2025/26, 420,000 tonnes (5.8%) above ABARES’ December forecast, adding unexpected supply to global markets. Record Western Australian crop: Western Australia’s all‑time high production significantly boosts raw material availability for canola meal processors. Weak EU demand: EU rapeseed import demand has fallen 43%, sharply reducing…

Bullish: Ukrainian domestic rapeseed bids rallied to UAH 22,600–23,700/t EXW on hryvnia weakness, supporting farmer selling and internal demand. Bearish: EU rapeseed import demand slid 43% y/y to 1.85 MMT in H1 2025/26, sharply limiting export opportunities for Ukrainian origin. Neutral-to-bearish: Prospective China–Canada canola duty cuts may reshape global flows, but seasonal oversupply and strong…

Russian Rapeseed Oil Exports Surge 33% in 2025, China Dominates Purchases Export Growth: Russian rapeseed oil exports rose 33% year-on-year to 106,400 tons in 2025, up from 79,800 tons in 2024. China’s Dominance: China purchased 76,600 tons, accounting for 72% of total Russian rapeseed oil exports. Market Diversification: Exports reached 18 countries, with Tunisia and…

Record Output: Russia’s 2025 rapeseed harvest hit a record 5.57 million tons, up 19.6% year-on-year on the back of larger sown area and higher yields. Siberian Strength: Siberian regions led growth, with the top five producers contributing 38.7% of total output and Altai Krai production jumping nearly 49%. Price Impact: The supply surge is Neutral…

Policy Extension: Ukraine prolonged the export duty exemption application deadline for rapeseed and soybean producers to February 1, 2026. Stricter Oversight: Monthly monitoring now compares export volumes with State Agricultural Registry data, targeting only actual producers. Revenue Allocation: Tariff proceeds will fund frontline agricultural regions, processing, greenhouses, horticulture, and war risk insurance. Market Impact: Neutral…

Export prices edge higher: Ukrainian rapeseed export values strengthened to USD 545/t CPT-port amid tight EU supplies and farmer selling restraint. Crush margins under pressure: Domestic processing bids fell to UAH 23,000–24,000/t CPT as plants face weaker margins and shift toward sunflower and soybean. Forward curve turns discounted: 2026 harvest forward prices are about USD…