Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Grain Exports Gain From Inland Waterways Plan
Russia’s inland waterways: Planned river links from Siberia and the Urals to Northwest and Azov-Black Sea ports could gradually shift 5–10 MMT of grain per year away from rail, modestly reshaping regional freight flows. Kazakhstan exports: Projected grain exports of around 13 MMT in 2025/26, following a 27 MMT harvest, support continued strong Black Sea–linked…
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China Soybean Imports Could Drop to 30% by 2034
Structural shift: Goldman Sachs projects China could cut soybean import dependency from 90% to 30% by 2034. Demand reduction: Chinese oilseed consumption has already declined by 15 million tons between 2021–2024. Feed reformulation: Lower soybean meal inclusion and efficiency gains in feed processing are curbing import needs. Domestic substitution: Expansion of high-protein corn cultivation aims…
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Ukraine Digital Vessel Tracking Boosts Port Turnaround
Operational Efficiency: New digital vessel tracking system reduces processing times and manual errors in Ukrainian seaports. Regulatory Alignment: Synchronization of data exchange brings Ukrainian port procedures closer to European vessel call management standards. Logistics Impact: Improved transparency and throughput capacity may enhance Black Sea route competitiveness and lower demurrage risks. Market View: Neutral to moderately…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Fall Amid Export Pressure
Bearish (inland): Ukrainian feed corn prices declined by 100–200 UAH/t amid export pressure and growing domestic supply. Neutral (ports): Odessa port prices held steady at 201–210 USD/t CPT-port despite weaker inland values. Logistical risk: Excessive grain moisture up to 25% is slowing harvest progress and could impact near-term availability. Sentiment: Market sentiment is bearish inland…
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EU Tightens Controls on Mercosur Agricultural Imports
EU Tightens Safeguards: European Parliament committee backs stricter and faster safeguard rules on Mercosur agricultural imports, lowering the trigger threshold to a 5% average rise over three years for sensitive products. Faster Investigations: Proposed timelines for safeguard probes are cut in half, to three months for standard and two months for sensitive products, with scope…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Decline Amid Export Weakness
Bearish: Ukrainian wheat prices declined across domestic and export markets, with feed wheat under sharper pressure than milling wheat. Bearish: Port prices for both milling and feed wheat slipped by USD 1–2/t, reflecting weaker export demand and ample supply. Bearish: Power outages are constraining production capacity and may further limit near‑term domestic demand despite ongoing processor…
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Black Sea Wheat Prices Slip After US Futures Drop
Wheat under pressure: U.S. and European wheat futures fell (CBOT March SRW -1.6% to $191.34/t), though U.S. wheat exports remain 21.9% above last year, signaling resilient global demand. Corn export strength: U.S. corn futures slipped only modestly, while exports for 2025/26 surged 68.74% year-over-year to 22.5 million tonnes, tightening competition for Black Sea origins. Oilseeds…
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Kyrgyzstan 2025 Wheat Harvest Plunges 26%
Production Shock: Kyrgyzstan’s 2025 wheat output fell 26% year-on-year amid weaker yields, with total grain production down 15%. Yield Deterioration: Average grain yields dropped to 30 c/ha from 35.8 c/ha, driven by poorer performance in the key Chui and Talas regions. Barley Under Pressure: Barley production declined 26% to 474,000 tons, with yields sliding to…
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Bashkortostan Flour Exports Surge 50% in 2025
Export Surge: Processed grain exports from Bashkortostan rose 50% year-on-year to over 29,200 tons in the first 11 months of 2025. Flour-Led Growth: Flour dominated the export mix at 27,370 tons, with demand from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan and other markets. Quality Assurance: All 200,000 tons of inspected grain and processed products met international quarantine…
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Ryazan Rapeseed Frost Causes Major Crop Losses
Neutral to slightly bearish: Spring frost during flowering sharply reduced winter rapeseed yields in Ryazan, highlighting weather risks for European Russia. Financial impact: Ingosstrakh paid 11.4 million rubles in insurance compensation for the damaged winter rapeseed crop. Risk management: The event may influence regional planting decisions and demand for crop insurance and other hedging tools.…