Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Black Sea Corn Prices Fall as Global Supply Rises
Bearish: Ukrainian feed corn export prices declined USD 1–2/ton amid a stronger global supply outlook and USDA’s upward revisions to US and Chinese production. Supportive: Farmer reluctance to sell and stable buyer demand in Ukraine are helping to limit further price erosion despite geopolitical and global market pressure. Global Competition: South Korean tenders favoring South…
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Russian Retail Food Prices Fall 9.3% — Sunflower Oil
Bearish for prices: Socially significant “first price” food products in Russia fell 9.3% year-on-year in December 2025, with borscht vegetables down 28% and broad declines across grains and sugar. Margin pressure: Retailers sold seven key categories below cost, including sunflower oil at a -1.8% markup and deep losses on carrots and white cabbage, reflecting policy-driven…
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Russian grain exports drop 18% amid global competition
Bearish Russian exports: Russian grain exports fell 17.6% in H1 2025/26 MY to 33.9 million tons amid intensifying competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina. Resilient Turkish demand: Turkey’s November grain imports surged 72% month-on-month to 1.37 million tons, with Russia supplying 92% of its wheat purchases. Diversification to Africa: Russian agricultural exports to Sudan…
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India Sunflower Oil Imports Surge 145% in December
Surging Sunflower Oil Demand: India’s sunflower oil imports jumped 145% month-on-month in December to 349,000 tonnes, a 17-month high. Palm Oil Under Pressure: Palm oil imports fell 20% to 507,000 tonnes, hitting an eight-month low as refiners shifted to competing oils. Overall Veg Oil Imports Higher: Total vegetable oil imports rose 17% to 1.38 million…
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Kazakhstan Sunflower Seed Stocks Hit Record 2.11M Tons
Key Takeaways Kazakhstan’s sunflower seed reserves reached a record 2.11 million tons as of January 1, 2026, up 38% year-on-year. Total 2025 oilseed harvest hit an all-time high of 4.8 million tons, boosting inventories across major crops. Flaxseed (+93%), rapeseed (+101%), and safflower (+79%) stocks surged, while soybean reserves edged lower. Elevated supplies are bearish…
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India Soybean Oil Imports Surge to Record High
India’s demand shift: Soybean oil imports hit a record 5.53 million tonnes in 2025, up 33% year-on-year, as buyers moved away from palm and sunflower oils. China’s tightening meal balance: Soybean meal stocks are expected to fall to 900,000 tonnes by end-January from record levels near 1 million tonnes since October 2025. Price strength: Dalian…
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US Corn Production Soars in USDA Report
US corn output surges: Global 2025/26 corn production is projected at 1,283 Mt (+4.3% y/y), driven by a 12.5% jump in US output to 425.5 Mt. Ukraine strengthens export role: Ukraine’s corn crop is seen up 8.2% to 29 Mt, enabling it to maintain 23 Mt of exports despite EU production decline. Trade flows reshuffle:…
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Ukrainian Wheat Demand Rises on Weather & Imports
Bullish: Weather-related production risks in the Black Sea and US wheat belt, combined with recovering import demand, are supportive for Ukrainian wheat prices. Bearish: Ongoing military risks and port infrastructure disruptions in Ukraine continue to constrain export flows and limit near-term shipment volumes. Market Update Ukrainian wheat exports remained muted in December as security risks…
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Black Sea sunflower oil surges to record $1,390/t
Bullish: Black Sea sunflower oil and rapeseed rally on record-high benchmarks and firm vegetable oil complex. Bearish: Soybean meal and broader meal complex weaken on softer livestock feed demand. Sunflower Oil Surges to Record High Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea jumped $100.00/t on January 13, 2026, reaching $1,390.00/t versus $1,290.00/t in the prior session. This…
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Kazakhstan Grain Exports to Rise with Infrastructure Push
Kazakhstan targets at least 6.5% trade volume growth by 2026, leveraging wholesale grain exports and new B2B digital trading platforms. Planned repairs of 11,000 km of roads, new railway lines, and three airports aim to cut logistics bottlenecks and support freight growth. Krasnoyarsk Krai wheat exports collapsed 4.5x in 2025, while value-added rapeseed oil and…