Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Kazakhstan Wheat Exports Hit Record – What’s Next?
Record exports vs. weak margins: Kazakhstan shipped a record 1.7 million tonnes of soft wheat in December 2025, yet farmer profitability remains under pressure from tenge devaluation and tight liquidity. Import paradox: Despite a bumper 2025 harvest, Kazakhstan continues importing around 1.5 million tonnes of Russian grain annually because exchange rate disparities make Russian wheat cheaper for…
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Canadian canola exports plunge – global oilseed impact
Canadian canola exports to China collapsed 92% to 0.2 million tonnes in Aug–Nov 2025 due to prohibitive Chinese tariffs. Canadian soybeans gained share in China, with shipments up 48% YoY to a record 1 million tonnes, capturing 36% of total Canadian soy exports. Canola meal flows were successfully redirected, led by record US imports of…
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Soybean Export Tax Evasion Exposed in Odesa
Odesa-based soybean exporter uncovered evading UAH 18.7 million in taxes on exports to Turkey, Romania, and the UAE. Roughly 10,500 tons of soybeans with undocumented origin, valued at UAH 104 million, were exported via intermediary companies. Case signals tighter oversight and documentation requirements for Black Sea soybean exports, with neutral immediate price impact but higher…
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Ukrainian barley prices hold steady amid slow trade
Prices Stable: Ukrainian feed barley prices held steady last week in both UAH and USD terms. Sluggish Trading: Overall trading and purchasing activity remained slow amid cautious buyer behavior. Limited Supply: Insufficient raw material availability supported prices and prevented downward pressure. Neutral Outlook: Balanced supply-demand conditions kept the market in consolidation without a clear bullish…
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Kazakhstan Grain Processing Boom: 2M Tons, Major Investors
Kazakhstan is launching deep grain processing projects totaling 2 million tons of annual capacity for wheat and corn. DALIAN HESHENG GROUP is building a 1 million ton wheat processing facility; FUFENG GROUP is constructing a 1 million ton corn plant. State support via investment contracts and guarantees is attracting international processors and signaling long-term policy…
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Ukrainian Corn Prices Rise on Strong Demand, Tight Supply
Bullish: Ukrainian feed corn prices climbed on strong domestic and export demand amid limited active supply. Bullish: Domestic bids strengthened to UAH 8,600-10,000/t CPT, while port quotes rose to USD 205-212/t CPT-port. Bullish: Small-tonnage seller offers and reluctance to release larger volumes suggest expectations for further price gains. Bullish: Export market dynamics are reinforcing domestic…
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Kazakhstan Durum Wheat Targets European Pasta Market
EU durum wheat production is set to decline due to reduced planting area and high fertilizer costs, opening space for Kazakhstani exporters. Global durum ending stocks are forecast to surge 21% in 2025/26 MY, led by a 202% y/y jump in Canadian stocks, pressuring prices. Black Sea producers (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey) saw 10–20% production declines…
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Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge 28% YoY
Exports down 28% YoY: Ukraine shipped 18.941 million tons of grain as of February 2, 2025/26 MY, versus 26.449 million tons a year earlier. Wheat and corn hit hard: Wheat exports fell 23% to 8.488 million tons, while corn dropped 31% to 8.815 million tons year-on-year. February pace collapsing: Only 34 thousand tons shipped in…
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Russian Wheat Prices Jump to $231/MT – Two-Month High
Bullish: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices for February delivery climbed to $231/MT, a two-month high, signaling firm international demand. Bearish: Rusagrotrans slightly downgraded January export expectations to 2.7 million tons, pointing to logistical constraints or slower shipment pace. Mixed: Domestic prices are largely stable to weaker, especially in the Volga region, supporting export competitiveness…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Prices Drop 8% YoY
Neutral to Bearish: Refined sunflower oil producer prices declined 8% year-on-year to RUB 99,784/ton in December 2025, signaling margin pressure for producers. Regulatory Risk: Russia’s FAS launched a markup investigation across the vegetable oil retail sector, increasing potential regulatory and profitability pressures. Export Competitiveness: Softer domestic prices could improve Black Sea sunflower oil export competitiveness,…