Author: Viktoriia Ray

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Bearish: Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest forecast was raised to 91 million tons, increasing projected export availability to 47.5 million tons. Bearish: Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks are robust at 13.96 million tons, supporting regional supply and limiting upside price momentum. Neutral: Production and export outlooks remain preliminary and subject to weather and geopolitical risks that could tighten…

Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Dip — Feb 12 Update

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in Prices

Bearish sunflower oil: Black Sea sunflower oil FOB fell to a weekly low of $1,300/t, signaling softer demand or improved export availability. Bullish meals: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal hit new highs across major exchanges, reflecting strong feed demand and supporting crush margins. Rapeseed oil strength: Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands surged to a record $1,291.39/t…

Ukrainian Grain Exports Persist Despite Port Damage

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Operational Resilience: Despite heavy damage to 686 port facilities and 150 civilian vessels, Ukraine maintains six operational seaports and a functioning maritime export corridor. Sustained Grain Flows: The Ukrainian Maritime Corridor has moved 173 million tons of cargo, including over 103 million tons of grain, supporting continued export availability. Logistical Risk Premium: Extensive damage to…

Alashankou Dry Port Boosts China-Kazakhstan Rail Trade

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Infrastructure Upgrade: Neptune Logistics launches a 13.3-hectare multimodal dry port at Alashankou, 3 km from the China-Kazakhstan border, boosting China–Europe/Central Asia rail capacity. Faster Transit: New facility enables cargo delivery to Central Asia in 3 days, Russia in 7 days, and Europe in 10 days via rail. Mixed Black Sea Impact: Enhanced rail corridor is…

Chinese Vegetable Oil Market Slips Ahead of Spring Festival

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in Sunflower oil

Bearish: Chinese vegetable oil prices fell across all major categories by mid-February, led by a 4% drop in rapeseed oil and a 3.55% decline in palm oil. Neutral: The soybean complex showed relative resilience, with soybean prices steady despite a 2.5% fall in soybean oil and a marginal 0.44% decline in soybean meal. Bearish: Pre-Spring…

Turkish Tomato Import Quota Faces 20% Increase

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Policy Shift: Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture has proposed raising the Turkish tomato import quota from 500,000 to 600,000 tons despite underutilization of the current limit. Domestic Pressure: Industry experts argue additional Turkish volumes are unnecessary, highlighting strong Russian and CIS production and quality advantages. Price Dynamics: Producer prices for tomatoes are down 18.2% year-on-year, while…

Ukraine Sunflower Oil Still Dominates EU Despite 21% Drop

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in Sunflower oil

Ukraine retains a dominant 92% share of EU sunflower oil imports despite a 21% year-on-year drop in shipped volumes. Total EU sunflower oil imports fell 19% to 1.04 million tonnes, tightening regional vegetable oil availability. Ukraine’s reduced sunflower harvest (down to 10.5 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes) constrains processing and export capacity into mid-2026.…

Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise as Supply Tightens

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in Wheat

Bullish: Ukrainian food wheat prices rose USD 1-2/t amid tightening supply, stronger export demand, and reduced competition from Russian exports. Bearish: Higher prices have not yet encouraged significant farmer selling, limiting nearby supply response and potentially increasing volatility. Ukrainian Wheat Market Update Ukrainian food wheat prices in key ports extended their gains as of February…

Russian Grain Transshipment Falls 14.5% in Jan 2026

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Bearish logistics signal: Russian seaports’ grain transshipment fell 14.5% y/y in January 2026 to 3.4 million tons, highlighting ongoing pressure on Black Sea export flows. Systemic softness: Total port cargo turnover declined 7% y/y, with dry cargo down 10.4% and liquid bulk down 3.8%, indicating broad-based weakness beyond grain. Export slowdown: Overall exports through Russian…

Ukraine Rapeseed Export Duty Sparks Processing Surge

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