Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Cucumber Prices Surge: FAS Investigates Gap
Bullish: Retail cucumber prices in Russia surged 111.1% over three months to 300.1 rubles/kg despite falling wholesale prices, widening retail margins. Bearish: Federal Antimonopoly Service investigation into greenhouse producers and potential import expansion could pressure retail prices and producer margins. Structural: Seasonal winter greenhouse costs and a policy focus on domestic self-sufficiency are driving short-term…
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Russian Wheat Exports: Egypt Triples Purchases
Neutral for wheat: Resurs Group’s wheat exports held steady at 1 million tonnes, with Egypt tripling purchases, indicating firm demand but no clear supply squeeze. Slightly bearish for oilseeds: A 10% drop in sunflower oil exports and pricing pressure in oilseed markets suggest softer fundamentals despite ongoing regional demand. Supportive for Black Sea grain flows:…
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Russian Wheat Export Outlook: Duty Zero, Bigger Harvest
Neutral to Bearish: Zero export duty on Russian wheat, barley, and corn extended for a sixth week keeps Black Sea export offers competitive in the near term. Supportive Supply: IKAR raises Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest forecast to 91 million tons, lifting export potential to 47.5 million tons. Structural Headwind: Russian wheat acreage slid to 26.9…
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Ukrainian Poultry Exports: Moldova Agrees Talks
Trade disruption: Moldova’s temporary suspension of Ukrainian poultry imports has created immediate supply chain friction for Ukrainian exporters. Market importance: Moldova imported 18,400 tons of Ukrainian chicken worth $32.7 million in 2025, underscoring its role as a key regional buyer. Mitigation efforts: Both sides agreed to tighten inspection controls and improve laboratory testing transparency to…
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Tunisia Feed Barley Tender Secures 50,000t at $276-278
Demand Signal: Tunisia’s ODC booked 50,000 tonnes of feed barley via an international tender, reinforcing steady North African demand. Price Benchmark: C&F price range of $276.90–$278.16 per tonne sets a fresh reference level for Near East feed barley imports. Supplier Split: Bunge and Louis Dreyfus Company each secured 25,000-tonne parcels, highlighting competitive global supplier interest.…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Rise on Tight Supply
Prices Rising: Ukrainian feed corn gained UAH 100-200/t week-on-week, trading mostly at UAH 8,900-9,500/t CPT, with southern regions up to UAH 10,200/t CPT. Strong Demand vs. Tight Supply: Domestic processors and export traders are competing for limited farmer offerings as producers hold back stocks, expecting further price gains. Bullish Market Tone: Export-driven demand, logistical advantages…
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India Wheat Exports Approved: $80/ton Price Gap
Neutral for global prices: India authorizes 3 MMT of wheat and processed grain exports, but high offer levels limit export execution. Bearish for Black Sea competitors: Indian wheat’s $80/tonne premium over Argentine and cheaper Black Sea origins keeps India largely non-competitive. Supportive for Indian farmers: Policy aims to stabilize domestic prices and maintain farm profitability…
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Kazakhstan sunflower export duty sparks price risk
Policy tension: Kazakhstan’s competition agency urges cutting the 20% sunflower seed export duty, saying it harms farmers, while processors warn of domestic price spikes. Domestic prices at risk: Processors project retail sunflower oil could jump to 1,200–1,300 tenge/liter if the duty is reduced, versus current 786–814 tenge/liter. Capacity expansion: Refining capacity is set to rise…
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Argentina Soybean Forecast Rises to 48M Tonnes
Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean harvest forecast raised by 1 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes on improved weather. Critical rains of 25–100 mm expected in key producing areas over the next week will help determine final yields. Corn production projection held at a record 62 million tonnes, reinforcing Argentina’s export availability. Global oilseed balance turns looser…
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US Corn Exports Surge, Displacing Ukraine in EU
US corn gains EU ground: US corn shipments to the EU rose by 6.5 million tons between 2023/24 and 2024/25, while Ukrainian exports fell by 7.5 million tons, signaling a major reshaping of Atlantic trade flows. Trade deals lock in US market access: New US agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian buyers secured…