Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Giurgiulesti Port Sale: Constanta to Invest in GIFP
Ownership Change: EBRD has completed the sale of its 100% stake in Danube Logistics, operator of Giurgiulesti International Free Port, to Romania’s state-owned Port of Constanta. Investment Commitment: The Port of Constanta plans substantial long-term infrastructure investments to expand capacity, upgrade facilities, and enhance regional competitiveness. Stronger Fundamentals: Since EBRD’s 2021 acquisition, Giurgiulesti has delivered…
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Russian Wheat Prices Rise on Black Sea Weather
Bullish: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices climbed to $233/MT for late-March delivery as storms and ice continue to disrupt Black Sea and Azov Sea logistics. Bullish: February wheat export forecasts were revised higher to 3.1–3.4 MMT, signaling resilient demand despite ongoing shipment constraints. Bullish: Tight near-term availability and constrained port operations are likely to…
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Ukraine Fertilizer Shortage Threatens 2025-26 Grain Exports
Bearish for Ukrainian grain: Nitrogen fertilizer deficit of 100,000–170,000 tons threatens spring sowing and yield potential. Structural supply shock: Domestic ammonium nitrate production fell 49% from 1.99 million tons (2024-25) to 1.016 million tons (2025-26) due to infrastructure attacks and power disruptions. Regulatory bottleneck: Continued ban on calcium ammonium nitrate imports, despite its non-explosive classification…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Gains Edge After China VAT Cut
Tax Cut: China reduced import VAT on refined sunflower oil from 13% to 9%, immediately lowering landed costs. New Tariff Line: A dedicated 10-digit code (1512190010) now covers refined sunflower oil under the revised system. Wider Scope: The new classification covers 16 agricultural oils, including refined/unrefined sunflower oil and refined rapeseed oil. Export Boost: The…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Acreage to Rise in 2025
Bullish wheat: Wheat acreage in East Kazakhstan to rise to 163,000 ha, supporting higher grain output underpinned by strong state subsidies. Bullish sunoil: Sunflower area to fall to 235,800 ha, signaling potentially tighter Kazakhstan sunoil supply and support for Black Sea prices. Supportive policy: 4.1 billion tenge in subsidies and fully secured seed supply create…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Hits Record High
Bullish: Black Sea sunflower oil hit a record $1,315.00/t on February 13 as regional supply tightens and demand from India remains steady. Bearish: Soybean oil weakened across major origins, highlighting softer sentiment for the broader global vegetable oil complex. Bullish: Soybean meal FOB Brazil surged to a record $347.85/t, underlining strong protein demand and robust…
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Black Sea Sunflower Meal Exports: China’s Big Demand
Bullish – Black Sea Sunflower Meal: China’s domestic sunflower meal covers only 16% of feed demand, creating a structural import gap that supports sustained Black Sea export flows. Neutral/Bearish – Russian Sugar: Export push above 1 million tons is constrained by logistics and weaker global prices, while shrinking farmer margins signal medium-term supply risks. Bullish…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Exports Slip 36% Amid Price Surge
Bullish: Tightening Russian sunflower oil export availability and a 25.8% year-on-year price jump in South Korean imports signal firming global values. Bearish: Russia’s 36% export decline to South Korea and loss of share to Argentina and India highlight competitive pressure in key Asian markets. Bullish: A 27% drop in Russian sunflower oil exports in the…
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Belarus Winter Rapeseed Orlan: 61 c/ha Yields for 2026
Neutral to Moderately Bullish: New winter rapeseed variety “Orlan” offers competitive yields of 61 c/ha and 95–100% winter hardiness, supporting long-term production growth. Structural Support: Belarus advances 145 winter and 68 spring hybrids, with seven under state testing, reducing reliance on imported genetics. Premium Segment Growth: High-oleic variety “Rodnik” targets value-added crushing demand, complementing high-yield…
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Ukrainian corn exports surge 42% in early Feb
Bullish Corn: Ukrainian corn exports surged 42% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year in early February 2026, signaling strong demand and efficient export logistics. Bearish Wheat: Wheat exports dropped 57% year-on-year, highlighting weaker demand or constrained supply relative to other exporters. Grain Complex: Total grain exports (corn, wheat, barley) rose 33% versus January 2026, with corn increasingly…