Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Grain Exports Plunge Amid Quota Cuts
Sharp volume declines: Taman Grain Terminal Complex exports dropped 56.8% to 2.42 million tons in 2025, while Novorossiysk Grain Terminal volumes fell 24.4% to 5.47 million tons. Quota-driven constraints: Russian grain export quota for Feb 15–Jun 30, 2025 was cut to 10.6 million tons versus 29 million tons in 2024, materially limiting flows. Capex amid…
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Brazil Soybean Exports Surge in Early 2026
Bearish for Black Sea: Brazil’s soybean exports are surging, intensifying competition and pressuring Black Sea soybean and meal prices. Logistics Watch: Weather risks may delay some February shipments into March, but overall export volumes remain significantly higher year-on-year. Processed Products Strength: Rising soybean meal and oil exports from Brazil weigh on Black Sea crush margins…
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Trans-Caspian Grain Exports: Kazakhstan’s New EU Route
Route diversification: Kazakhstan successfully tested the Trans-Caspian International Transit Route (TITR) for grain exports to Antwerp, opening an alternative to Russian-controlled northern routes. Cost advantage: Freight costs via TITR are lower than the traditional Northern Corridor while maintaining a similar 30-day transit time. Competitive positioning: Lower logistics costs could enhance Kazakh grain competitiveness in EU…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Hits Weekly Low
Bearish Black Sea sunflower oil: FOB Black Sea prices fell $5.00/t to a weekly low of $1,295.00/t, signaling softer demand or rising supply pressure. Bullish EU protein meals: Soybean meal CIF EU surged $9.95/t to a record $402.98/t, highlighting regional tightness and supporting alternative meals. Bullish Russian export complex: Russia’s 2025 agricultural exports hit $41.6…
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Russian Baltic Exports Hit by Baltic Ice Disruption
Russian Baltic exports disrupted: Severe ice in the Gulf of Finland is slowing vessel movements, extending escort times to 8–12 hours and risking full navigation halt from February 19. Ukraine shifts to value-added exports: Overall agricultural exports fell 9% to $22.71 billion in 2025, but processed products surged to $4.4 billion, nearly 20% of export value. Caspian…
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Turkey Sunflower Seed Imports Surge to Six-Year High
USDA lifted Turkey’s 2025/26 sunflower seed import forecast to 1 million tons, a six-year high, amid domestic crop shortfalls. EU sunflower seed exports to Turkey surged to 758,000 tons in Sep–Nov 2025/26, a 26-fold increase year-on-year. Black Sea sunflower oil flows to Turkey dropped sharply, with Ukraine down nearly 30% and Russia down 15% in…
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Brazil soybean harvest threatened by extreme weather
Weather risks in Brazil: Excessive rainfall in central and northern regions and drought in Rio Grande do Sul are pressuring analysts to cut Brazil’s soybean crop forecasts below 180 million tonnes. Robust US processing: US January soybean crushing hit a record 6.03 million metric tons, up 10.6% year-on-year, underscoring strong processing demand despite some weather-related…
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Jordan Feed Barley Tender: CHS Wins at $251.50/tonne
Jordan secures 50,000 t feed barley from CHS at $251.50/tonne C&F for June shipment. Competitive tender environment with nine major traders and a narrow price spread among top bids. Neutral to slightly bearish signal for Black Sea exporters as unrestricted origin widens supplier competition. June C&F price reference at $251.50/tonne suggests comfortable global feed barley…
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Ukrainian corn export prices dip on weak trader demand
Prices Ease: Feed corn bids at Ukrainian ports fell by USD 1-3/t week-on-week as of February 18 after a prior upward move. Demand Pause: Most traders have already completed export consignment formation, curbing short-term grain purchasing. Farmer Selling: Producers increased corn offers to replenish working capital, mainly in small-tonnage lots, tempering but not flooding supply.…
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Russian Wheat Exports Surge Amid Iran Supply Deal
Bullish: Russia and Iran are negotiating large-scale wheat supplies under a joint food security program, reinforcing demand for Black Sea wheat amid rising export prices. Bullish: Russian wheat exports for 2025/26 are projected at 56.2 million tons, up 12.4% from 50 million tons last season, tightening global supply balance. Bullish: Weather disruptions at southern Russian…