Global Soybean Meal Production Set to Surge 1.8 Million Tonnes in H2 2025
- Production Growth: Combined US, Argentina, and Brazil soybean meal output in April–September is forecast at 68.9 million tonnes, up 1.8 million tonnes year-on-year.
- US-Led Expansion: Robust US crushing and strong domestic consumption drive most of the increase, with output rising to 27.2 million tonnes.
- Export Competition: G-3 exports projected to reach 37.37 million tonnes, intensifying competition and pressuring global protein meal prices.
- Black Sea Impact: Higher G-3 soybean meal exports are neutral to bearish for Black Sea oilseed meal exporters amid tighter margins and pricing pressure.
Market Update
Oil World analysts project a sharp increase in soybean meal production from the three major global suppliers (G-3: US, Argentina, Brazil) during the April–September period of 2025. Combined output is expected to reach 68.9 million tonnes, up 1.8 million tonnes year-on-year, driven primarily by the United States.
| Country | Apr–Sep 2024/25 Production (mln t) | Apr–Sep 2023/24 Production (mln t) | Change (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 27.20 | 26.08 | +1.12 |
| Argentina | 17.66 | 17.71 | -0.05 |
| Brazil | 24.02 | 23.28 | +0.74 |
| G-3 Total | 68.88 | 67.07 | +1.81 |
The US will lead the expansion with output rising to 27.2 million tonnes, up from 26.08 million tonnes a year earlier. Argentina’s production is forecast at 17.66 million tonnes, marginally lower than last year’s 17.71 million tonnes. Brazil is expected to increase soybean meal production to 24.02 million tonnes versus 23.28 million tonnes previously.
In the US, the domestic market remains the main growth driver. Soybean meal consumption is increasing faster than livestock production, suggesting improved feed efficiency and substitution away from competing feed ingredients.
Previous Half-Year Production (Oct–Mar 2025/26)
| Country | Oct–Mar 2025/26 Production (mln t) |
|---|---|
| United States | 28.91 |
| Argentina | 14.13 |
| Brazil | 21.46 |
| G-3 Total | 64.50 |
For the October–March period of the 2025/26 marketing year, G-3 soybean meal production reached 64.5 million tonnes, up 1.6 million tonnes year-on-year. The US contributed 28.91 million tonnes, Argentina 14.13 million tonnes, and Brazil 21.46 million tonnes.
Export Outlook
| Country | Apr–Sep 2024/25 Exports (mln t) | Apr–Sep 2023/24 Exports (mln t) | Change (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 8.75 | 8.08 | +0.67 |
| Argentina | 15.66 | 15.85 | -0.19 |
| Brazil | 12.96 | 12.27 | +0.69 |
| G-3 Total | 37.37 | 36.20 | +1.17 |
Export volumes from the G-3 countries are projected to rise to 37.37 million tonnes in April–September, up from 36.2 million tonnes a year earlier. The US is expected to ship 8.75 million tonnes (versus 8.08 million tonnes), Argentina 15.66 million tonnes (down from 15.85 million tonnes), and Brazil 12.96 million tonnes (up from 12.27 million tonnes).
| Country | Oct–Mar Exports 2025/26 (mln t) | Year-on-Year Change (mln t) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 9.51 | +1.00 |
| Argentina | 13.04 | -1.00 |
| Brazil | 11.25 | n/a* |
| G-3 Total | 33.80 | n/a* |
Year-to-date exports (October–March) totaled 33.8 million tonnes. Record US shipments of 9.51 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes year-on-year, offset reduced Argentine exports of 13.04 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes. (*Brazil’s year-on-year comparison was not specified.)
Market Impact for Black Sea Oilseed Meal Exporters
Market Impact: Neutral to Bearish for Black Sea oilseed meal exporters
The projected increase in soybean meal production and exports from the Americas will intensify competition in global protein meal trade. In key import markets where soybean meal directly competes with sunflower and rapeseed meal in feed rations, heightened G-3 availability is likely to cap or pressure prices.
For Black Sea sunflower meal and rapeseed meal exporters, this implies tighter margins and the need for more aggressive pricing and flexible logistics, particularly in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Monitoring the pace of US exports will be critical: sustained high US volumes could further squeeze Black Sea price premiums and shift demand toward soybean meal in price-sensitive markets.
Source: Market Data
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