Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine Fertilizer Ban Threatens 20% Crop Loss
Bearish Ukraine: Delayed approval of calcium ammonium nitrate imports risks a 20% decline in spring crop yields and tens of billions of hryvnias in lost export revenue. Structural Risk: Domestic Ukrainian fertilizer output has fallen roughly 50% since the war, leaving the sector heavily reliant on timely import approvals. Russian Constraint: Despite 73% domestic market…
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Pea Protein Concentrate Threatens Soybean Feed Imports
Bearish Black Sea soybean imports: Enzyme-processed pea concentrate offers a domestically sourced, lower-cost alternative to imported soybeans in Russian poultry feed. Improved feed efficiency: Chickens on pea concentrate showed higher weight gain with lower feed consumption, enhancing profitability and reducing reliance on premium protein feeds. Cost advantage: Ability to process substandard peas cuts protein production…
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US Corn Acreage to Drop 4.8M Acres in 2026
Corn acreage cut: U.S. corn plantings are projected to fall 4.8 million acres to 94 million in 2026, down from an 89-year high in 2025. Shift to soybeans: Soybean area is expected to rise from 81.2 million to 85 million acres, supported by renewable fuel demand. Strong output despite cuts: 2026 corn harvest is still…
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Russian Wheat Exports to Georgia Rise 21% in January
Stronger Russian presence: Wheat exports from Russia to Georgia rose 21% year-on-year in January to $5.7 million, reinforcing Russia’s role as Georgia’s primary supplier. Short-term slowdown: Despite annual growth, January wheat shipments fell 1.9 times versus December, indicating seasonal or logistical softness in near-term flows. Concentrated import risk: Georgia’s wheat imports remain heavily reliant on…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Drops to Record Low
Bearish: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea fell $30.00/t to a record low of $1,260.00/t, while meal markets across soy, sunflower, and rapeseed weakened to weekly lows. Bullish: Soybean oil and tropical oils strengthened across key benchmarks, with US CBOT soybean oil and sunflower oil CIF Mumbai setting new highs, supporting crush margins for oil-focused processors.…
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Crimea Grain Exports Rise by 150,000 Tons in 2026
Export Growth: Crimea targets an additional 150,000 tons of grain exports in 2026, driven by a new barley allocation alongside existing wheat shipments. Stable Wheat Flows: The region retains a 400,000-ton wheat quota for 2025, indicating steady year-over-year export volumes. Oilseed Diversification: Authorities are seeking 25,000 tons of oilseed export capacity (rapeseed and sunflower), which…
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Pea Protein Concentrate Threatens Russian Soybean Demand
Bearish Black Sea soybeans: Enzyme-based pea protein shows potential to displace soybean meal in Russian poultry feed, pressuring regional soybean demand and pricing. Efficiency gains: Pea protein concentrate delivered 12% higher chicken weight with 6% lower feed consumption versus soybean-based diets in field trials. Cost advantage: Ability to process lower-grade peas and lower raw material…
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US Corn Acreage 2026: USDA Forecast & Market Impact
Corn acreage cut: USDA projects U.S. corn plantings to fall 4.8 million acres to 94 million in 2026, from an 89-year high in 2025. Soybean expansion: Soybean area is forecast to rise 3.8 million acres to 85 million, driven by strong domestic renewable fuel demand. Near-record crops: Corn and soybean harvests are projected at 15.755…
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Black Sea Wheat Undercuts Rivals in Egypt — Prices Rally
U.S. wheat futures rallied with March CBOT soft red winter wheat up 2.29% to $205.58/ton on February 19, 2026. USDA projects 2026 U.S. wheat plantings at 45 million acres, with production estimated at 1.86 billion bushels and yields at 50.8 bushels/acre. Global wheat stocks tightened slightly to 282 million tonnes, still 19 million tonnes above…
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Russian Food Producer Prices Stable in Jan 2026
Stabilization: Russian food producer prices were flat month-on-month in January 2026 after a 1.5% decline in December 2025. Moderate Inflation: Annual food producer prices rose 3.4% versus January 2025, indicating contained cost pressures. Beverage Outperformance: Beverage producer prices increased 2.4% m/m and 11.7% y/y, significantly outpacing overall food price growth. Market Impact: Price stability is…