Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine Sunflower Oil Exports Hold 92% Despite Drop
Dominant supplier: Ukraine retained a 92% share of EU sunflower oil imports in July–January 2025/26 MY despite lower export volumes. Tighter supply: Overall EU sunflower oil imports fell 18.8% year-on-year to 1.04 million tonnes, reflecting constrained supply rather than weaker demand. Harvest impact: Ukraine’s sunflower harvest decline from 13.0 to 10.5 million tonnes is capping…
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Ukrainian Rapeseed Prices Rise on Non-GMO Demand
Bullish: Strong non-GMO demand and biofuel-linked support are lifting Ukrainian rapeseed prices despite quiet trading. Bearish: Limited trading activity and cautious buyer interest are capping near-term upside potential. Ukrainian Rapeseed Market Overview Ukrainian rapeseed export prices moved modestly higher last week, supported mainly by firm demand for non-GMO oilseed. While price sentiment improved, overall trading…
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India Soybean Oil Imports Fall as Palm Oil Discount Widens
Bearish soybean oil: India has canceled over 130,000 tonnes of soybean oil imports since December, reducing near-term demand for Black Sea and South American supplies. Bullish palm oil: The widest soybean oil–palm oil price spread since 2023 is driving Indian buyers to aggressively substitute palm oil for higher-priced soft oils. Bearish Black Sea exports: The…
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Russian Grain Export Duties Remain Zero Through Mar 17
Zero duties extended: Russian wheat, barley, and corn export duties remain at 0% for the ninth consecutive week (effective March 11–17). Firming prices: Wheat and corn indicative prices increased week-on-week, while barley edged slightly lower. Competitive exports: Duty-free regime and current price levels keep Russian grain highly competitive in Black Sea export markets. Stable planning…
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Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Prices Stabilize; Supply Tightens
Prices Stabilized: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices held at UAH 28,300–29,800/t CPT, with workable bids from UAH 29,000/t CPT amid FX-driven volatility. Processing at Multi-Year Low: Only 5.5 MMT processed in Sep–Feb MY 2025/26, the smallest first-half volume on record, pointing to tightening domestic supply. Limited Farmer Selling: Farmer reluctance to sell and uncertainty over currency…
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Ukraine Oilseed Export Duty: Spain Demands EU Action
Bearish Black Sea soybeans: Potential EU mirror duties on Ukrainian vegetable oil could pressure Ukrainian crushers and domestic soybean prices. Supportive EU vegoil prices: Trade friction and possible retaliatory measures may tighten access to low-priced Ukrainian oil, aiding EU processors’ margins. Regulatory risk: Dispute over Ukraine’s 10% export duty adds uncertainty to EU–Ukraine agricultural trade…
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Ukraine Barley Exports: 25% Surge Forecast for 2026/27
Bullish: Ukraine’s barley export potential for MY 2026/27 is forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, a 25% year-on-year increase, supported by elevated carryover stocks. Bearish: Large carryover stocks and a 5% decline in projected production signal weak demand and potential price pressure, keeping the near-term outlook neutral to slightly bearish. Ukraine Barley Export Outlook APK-Inform projects…
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Ukraine Barley Exports Surge 22% in 2025/26
Bullish: Ukraine’s barley exports surged 22% year-on-year to 2.8 million tons in 2025/26 MY, signaling strong export availability for international buyers. Bearish: Total barley output remains 19.7% below the five-year average, underscoring ongoing structural production constraints despite the export rebound. Bearish (Prices): Higher export volumes, supported by reduced domestic consumption and large carryover stocks, may…
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Ukrainian Rail Grain Capacity to Drop 73% by 2025
Bearish logistics impact: Ukrzaliznytsia’s grain railcar fleet is projected to shrink by 73% from 2,600 to about 700 units by end-2025. Peak-season bottlenecks: Accelerated withdrawals of 500 cars per month from May–July threaten rail capacity during Ukraine’s critical grain export window. Funding constraints: Repairs have halted due to budget shortfalls, with long-term shipper contracts proposed…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Jump on Strong Demand
Bullish: Ukrainian feed corn prices climbed this week on strong domestic and export demand amid limited farmer selling. Bullish: Southern region prices reached UAH 10,300/ton CPT, up UAH 100/ton week-on-week and trading at a premium to the national range. Bullish: Tight market fundamentals and robust export sector activity are supporting prices and could sustain current…