Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge 29% in 2025/26
Bearish exports: Ukrainian grain exports are down 28.6% year-on-year to 13.821 million tons, tightening global supply from the Black Sea region. Corn under pressure: Corn shipments dropped 40% to 4.75 million tons, likely shifting demand toward alternative origins and supporting rival exporters’ prices. Improving flow: December exports accelerated to 1.389 million tons in the first…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Exports Fall 3 Million Tonnes
Supply Tightening: Global sunflower oil production is projected to fall to 25.1 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 28.2 million tonnes in 2023/24, reinforcing a structurally tighter market. Black Sea Export Decline: Combined Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are expected to drop by 3.0 million tonnes in 2025, disrupting traditional trade flows. Persistent Price Premiums:…
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Dagestan Sunflower Seeds Harvest Up 10.3% in 2025
Dagestan Sunflower Seeds Harvest Climbs 10.3% Year-on-Year to 3,970 Tons Key Takeaways Dagestan harvested 3,970 tons of sunflower seeds in 2025, up 10.3% from 3,600 tons in 2024. Cultivation area expanded to 3,000 hectares across six districts, with average yields of 13.1 centners/ha. Khasavyurt District dominated production with over 3,500 tons, while Kizlyar and Gunib…
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Soybean Export Fraud: 7,500 Tons Seized in Ukraine
Compliance Risk: Ukrainian authorities seized 7,500 tons of soybeans linked to forged export documentation, signaling tighter enforcement. Logistics Impact: Short-term logistical uncertainty at Odesa port as inspections and document checks intensify. Market Scope: Seized volume exceeds UAH 103 million (~USD 2.5 million) but represents a modest share of Ukraine’s soybean export capacity. Trade Flows: Blocked…
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Russian Grain Exports Gain From Inland Waterways Plan
Russia’s inland waterways: Planned river links from Siberia and the Urals to Northwest and Azov-Black Sea ports could gradually shift 5–10 MMT of grain per year away from rail, modestly reshaping regional freight flows. Kazakhstan exports: Projected grain exports of around 13 MMT in 2025/26, following a 27 MMT harvest, support continued strong Black Sea–linked…
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China Soybean Imports Could Drop to 30% by 2034
Structural shift: Goldman Sachs projects China could cut soybean import dependency from 90% to 30% by 2034. Demand reduction: Chinese oilseed consumption has already declined by 15 million tons between 2021–2024. Feed reformulation: Lower soybean meal inclusion and efficiency gains in feed processing are curbing import needs. Domestic substitution: Expansion of high-protein corn cultivation aims…
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Ukraine Digital Vessel Tracking Boosts Port Turnaround
Operational Efficiency: New digital vessel tracking system reduces processing times and manual errors in Ukrainian seaports. Regulatory Alignment: Synchronization of data exchange brings Ukrainian port procedures closer to European vessel call management standards. Logistics Impact: Improved transparency and throughput capacity may enhance Black Sea route competitiveness and lower demurrage risks. Market View: Neutral to moderately…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Fall Amid Export Pressure
Bearish (inland): Ukrainian feed corn prices declined by 100–200 UAH/t amid export pressure and growing domestic supply. Neutral (ports): Odessa port prices held steady at 201–210 USD/t CPT-port despite weaker inland values. Logistical risk: Excessive grain moisture up to 25% is slowing harvest progress and could impact near-term availability. Sentiment: Market sentiment is bearish inland…
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EU Tightens Controls on Mercosur Agricultural Imports
EU Tightens Safeguards: European Parliament committee backs stricter and faster safeguard rules on Mercosur agricultural imports, lowering the trigger threshold to a 5% average rise over three years for sensitive products. Faster Investigations: Proposed timelines for safeguard probes are cut in half, to three months for standard and two months for sensitive products, with scope…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Decline Amid Export Weakness
Bearish: Ukrainian wheat prices declined across domestic and export markets, with feed wheat under sharper pressure than milling wheat. Bearish: Port prices for both milling and feed wheat slipped by USD 1–2/t, reflecting weaker export demand and ample supply. Bearish: Power outages are constraining production capacity and may further limit near‑term domestic demand despite ongoing processor…