Author: Viktoriia Ray
-
Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Prices Drop $15/MT
Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices declined by USD 15/MT over the past two weeks. Weakness in global vegetable oil markets, including palm and sunflower oil, is pressuring prices. Falling global crude oil prices are reinforcing the bearish trend in vegetable oil valuations. Black Sea exporters face margin pressure and potential further downside if demand does…
-
Russian Sunflower Seed Harvest: Saratov Tops with 2.4M Tons
Russia’s top sunflower seed region: Saratov harvested nearly 2.4 million tons of sunflower seeds, the largest volume of any Russian region this season. Oilseed expansion: Soybean output hit a record 153,000 tons, with yields up 30% year-on-year to 20.6 c/ha amid a tripling of sown area in five years. Large grain and vegetable hub: The…
-
EU Wheat Production Drops — Black Sea Export Opportunity
EU soft wheat output projected to fall 6.2% to 128.3 mln t in 2026/27, down 8.5 mln t from 2025/26. Barley production seen dropping 8.3% to 52.1 mln t on weaker yields across member states. Corn production bucking the trend, rising 3.4% to 58.5 mln t (+1.9 mln t year-on-year). Bullish for Black Sea wheat…
-
Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Drop $30/t
Bearish Black Sea sunflower oil: FOB Black Sea prices dropped $30/t day-on-day to $1,240/t, marking the sharpest daily decline among major vegetable oils. Regulatory clarity in Russia: FAS confirmed the 2026 VAT hike excludes socially important foods, which retain the 10% rate, limiting VAT-driven price increases. Mixed oilseed complex: Rapeseed oil and meal rallied to…
-
Ukrainian rail grain exports surge at EU borders
Neutral to slightly bullish: Rail grain exports via EU border crossings have increased by around 34 cars per day versus November, led by stronger flows through Slovakia and Hungary. Logistical resilience: Higher rail capacity is partially offsetting constrained seaborne routes, supporting export continuity but not yet restoring pre-conflict shipment levels. Mixed regional dynamics: A marginal…
-
Russian Soybean Production to Surge 30% in 2025
Bearish Black Sea imports: Russia’s 2025 soybean crop is forecast up nearly 30% to as high as 9.3 million tons, slashing import needs and weighing on regional import demand. Bullish export potential: Strong production gains in Amur, Primorsky, Tambov, Belgorod, and Kursk could reposition Russia as a net soybean/meal exporter into Asian, European, and Middle…
-
Ukrainian Feed Barley Prices Fall Amid Port Disruptions
Feed barley prices softened by USD 3–5/ton at Greater Odessa and USD 2–3/ton at Danube ports as of December 18, 2025, despite tight farmer selling. Logistical and geopolitical pressures at Odessa, including higher insurance and freight costs amid ongoing attacks, are constraining exports and weighing on bids. Regional market weakness and Jordan’s lower tender prices amplified bearish sentiment, pushing…
-
Russian Wheat Prices Flat into Early 2026 – Market Outlook
Flat pricing outlook: Russian class 4 wheat is currently around 15,100 rubles/ton (ex-VAT) at ports, with similar levels expected in early 2026 amid ample global supplies. Global oversupply: Argentina’s record wheat harvest and strong export program are contributing to a glut that caps upside for international wheat prices. Quality advantage: Poor quality in Argentine wheat…
-
Russian Food Producer Prices Fall 0.7% in November
Producer prices fell: Russian food producer prices declined 0.7% month-on-month in November, reversing October’s 0.5% gain and signaling a short-term easing in cost pressures. Inflation still elevated: Despite the monthly drop, food producer prices are up 11.3% in 2024 versus 2% in 2023, with beverages up 11.2%, pointing to persistent inflationary pressure. Mixed sector dynamics:…
-
Malaysia Palm Oil Export Duty Cut to 9.5% — Market Impact
Malaysia cut its unrefined palm oil export duty to 9.5% for January 2026 from 10% in December, responding to weaker global prices. The reference price for palm oil fell to 3,946.17 ringgit/tonne from 4,206.38 ringgit, reflecting about a 6% month‑on‑month decline. Impact on Black Sea sunflower oil is mostly neutral, but cheaper Malaysian palm oil…