Author: Viktoriia Ray

  • Ukrainian Grain Exports Fall 31% in January

    Ukrainian Grain Exports Fall 31% in January

    Bullish: French Senalia terminal targets a 111% jump in 2025/26 grain exports to 3.8 million tons, driven by strong feed barley demand and expanded Middle East routes, including new sales to Iraq. Bearish: Ukrainian grain exports in 2024/25 are down 31% year-on-year to 16.376 million tons, with sharply lower January volumes, signaling ongoing logistical and production headwinds…

  • Ukraine Rapeseed Export Duty Extended – Deadline Feb 2026

    Ukraine Rapeseed Export Duty Extended – Deadline Feb 2026

    Policy Extension: Ukraine prolonged the export duty exemption application deadline for rapeseed and soybean producers to February 1, 2026. Stricter Oversight: Monthly monitoring now compares export volumes with State Agricultural Registry data, targeting only actual producers. Revenue Allocation: Tariff proceeds will fund frontline agricultural regions, processing, greenhouses, horticulture, and war risk insurance. Market Impact: Neutral…

  • Altai Krai Sunflower Production Hits 1.61M Tons

    Altai Krai Sunflower Production Hits 1.61M Tons

    Altai Krai market share: 1.61 million tons of sunflower seeds, around 10% of Russia’s 17 million ton output. Record harvest: Approximately 10 million tons of total grain and oilseed crops achieved in the region. Rising federal support: Rural development funding to Altai Krai increased from 3.17 billion rubles (2025) to 4.37 billion rubles (2026). Investment…

  • Brazilian Soybean Exports to Russia Plunge 63%

    Brazilian Soybean Exports to Russia Plunge 63%

    Brazil–Russia Shift: Brazilian soybean exports to Russia plunged 63% to 150,000 tons, cutting soybeans’ share of bilateral trade to just 6.5%. China Buying U.S. Beans: Sinograin booked 600,000+ tons of U.S. soybeans for Apr–May, pushing total commitments toward 10–12 million tons despite cheaper Brazilian offers. Sustainability Premium: Bunge’s 12,000-ton traceable soybean meal deal and 345,000-hectare…

  • USDA Wheat Forecast: Global Output Climbs on Russia

    USDA Wheat Forecast: Global Output Climbs on Russia

    USDA lifts global wheat output: 2025/26 global wheat production raised by 4.36 million tonnes to 842.17 million tonnes, led by larger Russian and Argentine crops. Exports edge higher: Global wheat exports forecast up to 219.76 million tonnes, with stronger Argentine shipments offsetting cuts to EU and Ukraine. Stocks build: Global ending stocks increased by 3.38…

  • Kazakh Wheat Flour Exports Drop in Early 2025/26

    Kazakh Wheat Flour Exports Drop in Early 2025/26

    Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports to Afghanistan declined 9.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025/26, falling to 321,000 tons. Shipments to Uzbekistan dropped 18.8% over the same period, totaling 102,700 tons. Combined exports to both key markets decreased by around 58,800 tons, signaling softer regional demand or stronger competition. For Black Sea traders, the impact…

  • Ukrainian road freight plunges 65% in January

    Ukrainian road freight plunges 65% in January

    Ukrainian agricultural road exports fell 65% in January to 3,700 tons/day from 10,400 tons/day in December. First-week January shipments totaled 22,800 tons, nearly three times lower than December’s 81,200 tons for the same period. Seasonal weakness and border clearance inefficiencies are the main drivers of the contraction. A gradual recovery in volumes is expected in…

  • Black Sea Rapeseed Prices Tick Up on EU Tightness

    Black Sea Rapeseed Prices Tick Up on EU Tightness

    Export prices edge higher: Ukrainian rapeseed export values strengthened to USD 545/t CPT-port amid tight EU supplies and farmer selling restraint. Crush margins under pressure: Domestic processing bids fell to UAH 23,000–24,000/t CPT as plants face weaker margins and shift toward sunflower and soybean. Forward curve turns discounted: 2026 harvest forward prices are about USD…

  • Kazakhstan Grain Subsidy Overhaul Boosts Fair Access

    Kazakhstan Grain Subsidy Overhaul Boosts Fair Access

    Regulatory correction: Kazakhstan’s competition authority ordered Food Contract Corporation to fix anticompetitive practices in grain transportation subsidy distribution. Process reform: Over 60% of subsidies had gone to a limited group, with application review times ranging from same-day to 80–112 days, prompting mandatory procedural changes. Digital transparency: A new electronic portal and public tracking of applications…

  • Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Up $100/MT This Month

    Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Up $100/MT This Month

    Bullish: Black Sea FOB sunflower oil for January 2026 delivery has climbed $100/MT month-over-month to $1,270/MT amid tight global vegetable oil supplies and three-year highs in the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index. Bearish: Upside is limited by competitive pressure from cheaper palm and soybean oils, a stronger ruble weighing on Russian export competitiveness, and indications…