Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Palm Oil Exports Drop – Price Competitiveness Rises
Exports Softening: Malaysian palm oil exports fell 9.7% year-over-year in 2025 to 15.26 million tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers including India, China, the EU, and Turkey. Price Competitiveness: Palm oil now trades at a steep discount of $250/tonne to sunflower oil and $100/tonne to soybean oil, enhancing its appeal in price-sensitive markets. Short-Term…
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Australian Canola Production Surges, Pressures Rapeseed
Bearish supply shock: Australian canola output reached 7.65 million tonnes in 2025/26, 420,000 tonnes (5.8%) above ABARES’ December forecast, adding unexpected supply to global markets. Record Western Australian crop: Western Australia’s all‑time high production significantly boosts raw material availability for canola meal processors. Weak EU demand: EU rapeseed import demand has fallen 43%, sharply reducing…
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US Soybean Exports Rise as China Buys 12 MMT
Bullish US–China trade: China completed 12 MMT of US soybean purchases and is expected to buy 25 MMT annually through 2028, supporting US export demand. Bearish Brazil & Black Sea: Brazilian exports to China are projected to fall 10 MMT YoY to 77 MMT, increasing price competition and pressure on alternative origins, including Black Sea…
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Black Sea Wheat Prices Rise as Supply Tightens
Black Sea wheat prices firmed: Russian 12.5% protein wheat rose to $227.50/ton FOB and Ukrainian 11.5% to $227/ton on strong demand and constrained supply. Export flows pressured by weather: Russian January exports are still projected at 2.8–3.0 MMT, but port disruptions have forced analysts to trim earlier forecasts. Domestic Russian prices supported by cheaper freight:…
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Chornomorsk Port Concession Draws 40+ Bidders
Chornomorsk port appeal: Over 40 international bidders signal strong interest in Ukraine’s largest wartime port PPP, with pre-qualification due by March 4, 2025. Capacity boost: Concession plan targets 250,000 TEU containers and 3 million tons of bulk cargo within three years, supporting over 1,000 jobs and around $1 billion in budget revenues. Russian dairy resilience:…
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Uzbekistan Vegetable Oil Production Jumps 29% in 2025
Production Surge: Large Uzbek enterprises produced 185,100 tons of refined vegetable oil in Jan–Nov 2025, a 29.2% year-on-year increase. Capacity Expansion: The sector now includes 85 large oil and fat processing facilities, underscoring sustained industrial growth. Demand Shift: Domestic consumption is set to rise, with consumers increasingly favoring non-traditional vegetable oil varieties. Trade Impact: Neutral…
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Soybean Market Outlook: Russia, EU & Brazil Update
Neutral to Bearish: Expanding Russian soybean meal production and higher domestic absorption support local supply but add to regional pricing pressure. Bearish: A 14% drop in EU-27 soybean imports and Ukraine’s shrinking market share intensify competition for limited demand. Bearish: Brazil’s record harvest, rising crushing, and a 241% surge in ending stocks point to heavier…
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Ukrainian Feed Barley Prices Rise on Tight Supply
Domestic prices higher: Ukrainian feed barley bids rose to UAH 9,000-10,200/t CPT on tightening seasonal supply. Port values supported: Export terminal prices settled at USD 208-223/t CPT-port amid firm demand from domestic consumers and traders. Corn competition: Cheaper corn limited fresh barley buying as feed mills and poultry producers favored lower-cost alternatives. Neutral to marginally…
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Rostov Corn Seed Imports Surge 40% in 2025
Corn seed imports jump 40%: Rostov Region corn seed imports rose to 16.2 tons in 2025, signaling stronger planting intentions and mildly bullish sentiment for future corn production. Sunflower and vegetable seeds decline: Sunflower seed imports fell 20% to 25 tons and vegetable seeds slipped 6% to 32 tons, suggesting a possible shift in acreage…
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Algeria Wheat Tender Sees Argentine Win at $254/ton
Algeria Tender Secured: OAIC booked 600,000–720,000 tons of milling wheat at $253–$254/ton C&F, with Argentine origin expected to dominate. Russian Prices Under Pressure: Russian wheat producer prices fell 10.2% YoY to 12,142 rubles/ton in November 2025, making wheat the cheapest major grain domestically. Logistics Advantage: February 2026 shipment slots for South American origins put Black…