Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Indian Soybean Meal Exports Plunge 37.5% on Price Pressure
Bearish exports: Indian soybean meal shipments fell 37.5% y/y in December 2025 to 173,000 tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers. Uncompetitive pricing: Higher Indian prices versus US, Brazilian, and Argentine meal reduced price competitiveness in global markets. Regional shifts: UAE, Iran, Nepal, and Bangladesh remain core buyers but are trimming volumes and potentially diversifying…
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Ukraine Corn Harvest Nears 29M Tonnes — Export Outlook
Key Takeaways Corn harvest in Ukraine has reached 28.914 million tonnes (92% of forecast), with limited upside to final volumes. Weekly harvesting pace has slowed sharply, signaling the campaign is effectively in its final stage. Average corn yield stands at 71.7 centners/ha across 4.033 million ha, supporting stable export availability. Total grain and legume production…
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Australian Wheat Exports Surge: Global Price Pressure
Bearish wheat: Australia’s 37 MMT wheat crop (+34% vs 10-year average) and 27 MMT exports in 2025/26 add significant export competition. Bearish barley: Record 15.5 MMT barley crop and 8.6 MMT exports intensify pressure on Black Sea barley values in shared Asian and MENA markets. Global spreads at risk: Higher Australian availability could compress global…
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Ukrainian Grain Rail Exports Shift to Hungary
Hungary Emerges as Key Corridor: Ukrainian grain rail exports have pivoted toward Hungary, with flows rising to 58.4 railcars/day in January, making it the dominant route. Alternative Routes Weaken: Rail grain transfers via Slovakia, Poland, and Romania have all declined, led by Slovakia’s 8.1 railcars/day drop to 22.9 railcars/day. Logistics Risk Concentration: The growing reliance…
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Russian Bread Prices Surge After 30% Rye Acreage Drop
Prices: Rye bread +13.4% and wheat bread +11.2% in early 2026, with average bakery products at 100–117 rubles/kg. Supply shift: Rye acreage down nearly 30%, driving a 10.3% year-on-year fall in rye flour production. Costs: Logistics now up to 25% of finished bread costs in some regions, alongside rising energy and labor pressures. Demand: Consumption…
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Ukrainian Grain Exports: Odesa Railcar Unloading Falls
Ukrainian Port Logistics Weaken as Grain Railcar Unloading Declines Average daily grain railcar unloading at Greater Odesa ports fell to 1,175 units on January 22, down 33 railcars week-on-week. Railcars en route to Greater Odesa ports decreased to 8,337 units, indicating reduced freight flow into Ukraine’s main grain corridor. Danube ports saw a marginal pickup,…
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China Soybean Oil Imports: Russia Grabs 93% in Dec
Neutral/Bearish Black Sea soybeans: South American competition intensifies as Brazil expands soybean meal exports 10.7% y/y and captures larger shares of China’s soybean complex demand. Supportive crush margins: Elevated Brazilian FOB soybean meal prices at $321.78/t and strong Chinese buying may underpin global crush demand, providing some offset to origin-premium pressure. Chinese demand reshuffling: Record…
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Russian Corn Exports to China Surge Nearly Threefold in 2025
Corn Surge: Russian corn exports to China jumped 2.9x in 2025 to a record 444,000 tons worth $107.6 million, signaling stronger Russian presence in Asian feed markets. Wheat Collapse: Wheat shipments to China plunged 5.7-fold to 60,600 tons, their lowest level since 2022, highlighting shifting Chinese demand or stronger competition from other origins. Mixed Grains:…
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Ukrainian Wheat Export Prices Steady Amid Weak Demand
Prices Stable: Ukrainian class 3 milling wheat export prices held steady at $206-214/t CPT Greater Odessa and $206-212/t CPT Danube ports as of January 22, 2026. Weak Demand: Low trading activity persists due to reduced competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat in international markets. Mild Pressure: Some exporters trimmed purchase prices after covering earlier export commitments, keeping…
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Russian Grain Exports Fall 33% on Logistics Crunch
Bearish: Russian grain exports fell 33% year-on-year in early January, with wheat, corn, and barley volumes all sharply lower. Bearish: Number of exporting companies dropped to a five-year low and active ports were nearly halved, exposing severe logistical and financial constraints. Neutral to Bearish: Russian wheat maintains a modest price discount to French and U.S.…