Author: Viktoriia Ray

Policy Shift: Russia introduced an additional tariff quota for grain exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union for the 2025/26 marketing year. Supply Outlook: Rosstat revised the 2025 grain harvest up to 141.2 million tonnes, signaling ample domestic supply and export potential. Base Quota Intact: The main 20 million tonne export quota remains in place from…

China-Azerbaijan Rail Freight Surges on Trans-Caspian

Apr 14, 2026

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Capacity Surge: Rail freight on the Xi’an-Baku route via Kazakhstan rose 2.5x year-on-year in Q1 2026, with 85 trains versus 34 in Q1 2025. Faster Transit: Average delivery time on the corridor improved 25%, dropping from 20 days to 15 days. Logistics Impact: Neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea logistics, adding an alternative corridor…

Ukrainian Agricultural Road Exports Slip in Early April

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Flows Easing: Early April Ukrainian agricultural road exports averaged 9.2 thousand tons per day, slipping from more stable March levels. Route Concentration: Polish and Romanian corridors dominate shipments, handling the bulk of daily volumes despite rising volatility. Volatility Up: Daily exports peaked at 10-11 thousand tons mid-period before falling to 7.5-8 thousand tons, signaling less…

Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Prices Rally After Midweek Recovery

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in Sunflower Seeds

Price Recovery: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices rebounded by 100–200 UAH/t by week’s end after a mid-week dip tied to weaker global oil markets. Active Demand: Trading largely occurred above initial processor bids, at 30,800–31,600 UAH/t CPT for 48–50% oil content seeds. Supportive Supply: Moderate raw material availability helped stabilize prices and limited downside pressure. Oil…

Ukraine Corn Planting Begins: Spring Sowing at 17%

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in Corn

Spring sowing at 17%: Ukraine has planted 997,000 hectares of spring grains, reaching 17% of the planned 6.003 million hectares. Corn and millet underway: Official start of the key coarse grain planting season, alongside ongoing sunflower and soybean sowing. Behind last year’s pace: Progress lags 2024 in absolute area, though completion rates are similar against…

Indonesian Palm Oil Exports Surge, Hitting Global Oils

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Bullish for Indonesian palm oil exports: February shipments rose 17% year-on-year to 2.69 million tonnes, with October–February volumes up 19% to 12.23 million tonnes. Bearish for Black Sea vegetable oils: Strong Indonesian supply and competitive pricing are crowding out sunflower oil in key markets like China and the EU, potentially pressuring Black Sea freight and margins. China…

Ukrainian Soybean Prices Rise on Tight Supply

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in Soybeans

Bullish: Ukrainian soybean prices are rising on tight domestic supply and strong soybean meal export demand. Bullish: Export bids gained 2–5 USD/t to 437–450 USD/t CPT port amid firmer global vegetable oil and soybean markets. Bullish: Domestic prices jumped 300–700 UAH/t as crushers compete for limited raw soybeans. Neutral/Bearish: Port congestion and slow trade activity…

Kazakhstan Wheat Reserves Down 2% — April 2026 Update

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in Wheat

Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks slipped 2% year-on-year to 10.8 million tons as of April 1, 2026, signaling slightly tighter supply. Milling wheat dominates reserves at 9.22 million tons (around 85% of total wheat), supporting quality-focused export demand. Feed wheat remains relatively tight at about 504 thousand tons, which could underpin regional feed grain prices. Overall grain…

Odessa Rail Freight Declines: Export Capacity Risk

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