- Sunflower oil steady at highs: FOB Black Sea sunflower oil held at $1,260/t for Dec–Jan, with CIF Mumbai surging to a weekly peak, signaling firm import demand.
- Soy complex diverges by origin: Brazil FOB soybeans and soybean oil pushed to weekly highs, while US CBOT soybeans and soybean oil eased, underscoring shifting demand toward South American supply.
- Palm oil broadly firmer: Malaysian FOB palm oil and Dalian China palm oil both advanced to weekly highs, tightening the discount to soft oils and supporting overall veg oil values.
- Meals mostly supported: Soybean meal posted gains across Brazil, US, and China, while sunflower meal edged higher and rapeseed meal in the EU softened modestly.
- Black Sea outlook neutral to slightly bullish: Stable high sunflower oil prices and a stronger India basis suggest constructive Q1 2026 export prospects, though rising palm oil and weak European rapeseed warrant close monitoring.
Vegetable Oils Market Update
Global vegetable oil markets on December 23 showed a mixed yet generally firm tone, led by stable but elevated Black Sea sunflower oil values, divergent soybean oil performance across origins, and broad-based strength in palm oil.
| Commodity | Location / Basis | Delivery | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | Dec–Jan | $1,260.00/t | Unchanged |
| Sunflower oil | CIF Mumbai, India | – | $1,343.25/t | +19.90/t |
| Soybean oil | FOB EU | Dec | $1,285.58/t | +10.08/t |
| Soybean oil | FOB Brazil | – | $1,092.41/t | +5.47/t |
| Soybean oil | US CBOT | – | $1,064.83/t | -5.51/t |
| Soybean oil | Dalian, China | – | $1,137.73/t | +5.94/t |
| Palm oil | FOB Malaysia | – | $1,014.90/t | +7.46/t |
| Palm oil (RBD) | Dalian, China | – | $1,198.92/t | +16.81/t |
| Rapeseed oil | FOB Netherlands | – | $1,256.64/t | +4.14/t |
Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea remained fixed at $1,260.00/t for December and January, matching the maximum level for this position. The CIF Mumbai basis strengthened sharply to $1,343.25/t, the highest level of the week, underscoring firm Indian buying interest and widening the premium over the FOB Black Sea marker.
Soybean oil pricing diverged across origins. FOB EU soybean oil climbed to a record $1,285.58/t for December, while FOB Brazil advanced to $1,092.41/t, both setting weekly highs. In contrast, US CBOT soybean oil retreated to $1,064.83/t, highlighting softer US-linked values. Chinese Dalian soybean oil moved higher to $1,137.73/t, keeping Asia in line with the firmer global tone.
Palm oil markets strengthened across the board. FOB Malaysia rose to $1,014.90/t, a weekly peak, and RBD palm oil in Dalian, China, jumped to $1,198.92/t, also at maximum weekly levels. Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands added modest gains to $1,256.64/t, narrowing but not eliminating the premium of Black Sea sunflower oil and keeping the soft oil complex supported.
Meals and Oilseeds Market Update
| Commodity | Location / Contract | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean meal | FOB Brazil | $339.00/t | +3.78/t |
| Soybean meal | US CBOT | $331.91/t | +2.76/t |
| Soybean meal | Dalian, China | $433.69/t | +0.67/t |
| Sunflower meal | CIF France | $257.23/t | +0.85/t |
| Rapeseed meal | FOB EU | $213.57/t | -0.47/t |
| Soybeans | FOB Brazil | $420.89/t | +4.78/t |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | $386.35/t | -0.64/t |
| Soybeans | Dalian, China | $578.54/t | +0.42/t |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France (Dec) | $532.15/t | -3.54/t |
Meal markets were broadly firmer. FOB Brazil soybean meal rose to $339.00/t, a weekly high, while US CBOT soybean meal advanced to $331.91/t. Dalian soybean meal gained marginally to $433.69/t. Sunflower meal CIF France edged higher to $257.23/t, whereas rapeseed meal FOB EU softened slightly to $213.57/t, signaling some relative weakness in rapeseed complex by-products.
In oilseeds, Brazil FOB soybeans rallied to a weekly high of $420.89/t, reinforcing Brazil’s competitive position versus the US, where CBOT soybeans slipped to $386.35/t. Chinese Dalian soybeans inched up to $578.54/t, while MATIF France rapeseed retreated to $532.15/t for December delivery, extending the softer tone in European rapeseed.
Black Sea Market Analysis: Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Unchanged sunflower oil FOB Black Sea prices at $1,260/t point to stable demand and a willingness by sellers to defend current offer levels. The origin maintains a clear value premium, trading approximately $195/t above Malaysian FOB palm oil and around $3.36/t above rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands, reflecting continued differentiated demand for high-oleic sunflower products.
The stronger CIF Mumbai basis, now implying an $83.25/t premium over FOB Black Sea, highlights robust Indian import interest and provides a constructive signal for Q1 2026 export flows. At the same time, firm global meal prices and the widening performance gap between Brazilian and US soybeans could influence crush economics and substitution patterns among competing vegetable oils.
Overall, the Black Sea sunflower oil outlook appears neutral to slightly bullish in the near term. However, traders should closely track European rapeseed weakness and ongoing strength in Malaysian palm oil, as shifts in relative pricing may gradually reshape competitive dynamics in key destination markets.
Source: Market Data
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