- Export Pace: Russia shipped 26.6 million tonnes of wheat in July–December, above the five-year average but 8.5% below last season’s record, signaling solid yet moderating export momentum.
- Price Pressure: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values eased to $227–228/t amid abundant global supplies and weaker competing origins, creating a neutral to slightly bearish price backdrop.
- Global Competitiveness: Russia remains price-competitive versus U.S., EU, and Black Sea origins, supporting continued demand from key buyers such as Egypt, Turkey, and Iran.
- Domestic Signals: Slight increases in Russian deep-water port prices may indicate an emerging floor, though international price pressure could resume if global supply remains ample.
- Forward Outlook: Grain export projections of 53–55 million tonnes and wheat export potential of 44–45 million tonnes for 2025/26 point to sustained Russian presence in global wheat trade.
Russian Wheat Export Performance
Russian wheat exports from July through December reached approximately 26.6 million tonnes, according to the Rusagrotrans analytical center. This volume is above the five-year average of 24.5 million tonnes, underscoring Russia’s continued strength in global wheat trade, but remains 8.5% below last season’s record 29.1 million tonnes for the same period.
Egypt was the leading buyer with 4.8 million tonnes of Russian wheat, followed by Turkey at 4.1 million tonnes. Other notable importers included Iran (1.8 million tonnes), Bangladesh (1.45 million tonnes), and Libya (1.05 million tonnes), highlighting continued broad demand for Black Sea wheat across MENA and Asian markets.
International Wheat Price Comparison
| Origin | Specification / Period | Price (FOB) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Wheat 12.5% protein, Dec–Jan | $227–228/t | – $1/t |
| United States | Wheat | $228/t | – $9/t |
| Ukraine | Wheat | $226/t | – $2/t |
| France | Wheat | $226/t | – $2/t |
| Romania | Wheat | $232/t | – $1/t |
| Argentina | Wheat | $213/t | Lower (exact $ not specified) |
Russian Domestic Port Pricing
| Location / Mode | Wheat Spec | Price (RUB/t, ex-VAT) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep-water ports, road shipments | 12.5% protein | 15,300–15,400 | + 50 RUB/t |
| Deep-water ports, rail deliveries | 12.5% protein | 16,000 | Unchanged |
Export Outlook and Market Tone
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev confirmed total Russian grain export projections for the current season at 53–55 million tonnes, broadly aligned with historical averages. Within this, Rusagrotrans estimates wheat export potential at 44–45 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season, suggesting Russia will remain a core supplier in global wheat flows.
The market tone is neutral to slightly bearish. While Russian wheat remains highly competitive and export volumes are robust, abundant global harvests and generally favorable winter crop conditions across major producers continue to cap upside in prices. The modest firming in Russian domestic deep-water port prices may hint at a near-term floor, but further downside internationally cannot be ruled out if supply remains comfortable and demand shows no significant acceleration.
Source: Market Data
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