EU Rapeseed Meal Prices Plunge 28% on Oversupply

• Bearish: EU rapeseed meal prices dropped to $216/tonne FOB Hamburg as of December 9, down 10% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year amid oversupply.
• Bearish: EU rapeseed meal imports surged to 432,500 tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (as of December 7), more than double last year, with Canada supplying 324,800 tonnes after zero shipments a year ago.
• Neutral to slightly bearish: Increased Canadian availability and weaker soybean meal demand are pressuring EU crush margins and modestly weighing on Black Sea rapeseed and meal values.

EU Rapeseed Meal Market Overview

EU rapeseed meal markets are under significant downward pressure in early December, driven by seasonal stock builds and sharply higher import volumes. Spot prices at Hamburg fell to $216 per tonne FOB on December 9, a 10% decline versus early November and a 28% drop compared with the same period last year, underscoring the scale of the oversupply.

According to European Commission data, EU rapeseed meal imports in the 2025/26 marketing year reached 432,500 tonnes through December 7, more than doubling volumes seen in the corresponding period of the previous season. Canada has rapidly become the dominant supplier, delivering 324,800 tonnes into the EU after registering no shipments in the prior year, reshaping the regional supply landscape.

Additional pressure stems from weakening demand for soybean meal following the postponement of EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation) implementation. The delay has eased immediate compliance constraints on soybean flows, intensifying competition across the protein meal complex and amplifying downward price momentum in rapeseed meal.

Price and Trade Data Snapshot

Implications for Black Sea Rapeseed and Meal

While the latest moves are centered in the EU, they carry neutral to slightly bearish implications for Black Sea rapeseed and meal. The surge in competitively priced Canadian rapeseed meal reduces the scope for Black Sea-origin supplies, particularly from Ukraine, to capture EU demand. As EU meal prices fall, crush margins may tighten, potentially curbing rapeseed intake and exerting modest downward pressure on Black Sea rapeseed prices.

Traders should track whether EU buyers adjust their sourcing strategies in response to lower rapeseed meal prices and ample Canadian availability. Shifts in demand between EU domestic crush, Canadian imports, and Black Sea origin will be key in determining price direction into the remainder of the 2025/26 marketing year.

Source: Market Data