- Export Pace Improves: December grain shipments reached 1.137 million tons, up 15.5% year-on-year, signaling stronger logistics and export momentum.
- Overall Volumes Still Weak: Total 2025/26 MY grain exports at 13.521 million tons are down 30% from 19.359 million tons a year earlier.
- Wheat Dominates Mix: Wheat leads with 7.569 million tons exported, while corn reached 4.524 million tons and barley 1.22 million tons.
- Processed Exports Softer: Flour exports declined to 29,900 tons, with wheat flour accounting for 29,000 tons of the total.
- Logistics & Freight Tailwind: Faster December pace suggests improved port throughput and vessel activity, supportive for regional freight demand.
Market Update
Ukraine’s grain export activity accelerated in December, with shipments totaling 1.137 million tons through December 11, 2025, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine. This marks a 15.5% increase compared with 984,000 tons exported during the same period in December 2024, underscoring improved logistics and export flows into the winter period.
Despite the stronger December run rate, cumulative exports since the start of the 2025/26 marketing year remain significantly lower. Total grain exports reached 13.521 million tons as of December 11, versus 19.359 million tons as of December 13, 2024, reflecting a 30% year-on-year shortfall that continues to weigh on overall supply availability from Ukraine.
Export Structure by Commodity
Wheat remains the backbone of Ukraine’s export program, with shipments of 7.569 million tons so far in the 2025/26 marketing year, down from 9.175 million tons a year earlier. Corn exports reached 4.524 million tons, sharply lower than 7.969 million tons the previous season, while barley exports totaled 1.22 million tons compared with 1.898 million tons last year. Rye exports remain negligible at just 200 tons.
On the processed side, flour exports slipped to 29,900 tons from 34,700 tons in the prior marketing year, with wheat flour accounting for 29,000 tons of the current total, suggesting weaker demand for value-added products or tighter raw grain availability for processing.
| Category | Commodity | 2025/26 Exports (million tons) |
2024/25 Exports (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grain Total | All grains | 13.521 | 19.359 |
| Grain | Wheat | 7.569 | 9.175 |
| Grain | Corn | 4.524 | 7.969 |
| Grain | Barley | 1.220 | 1.898 |
| Grain | Rye | 0.0002 | n/a |
| Processed | Flour (total) | 0.0299 | 0.0347 |
| Processed | Wheat flour | 0.0290 | n/a |
Logistics & Freight Implications
The pick-up in December exports indicates improving freight flows, likely driven by stronger farmer selling, currency needs, and better logistics capacity across ports and transport corridors. The faster loading pace points to increased vessel activity and higher port throughput, which should support Black Sea freight demand in the near term.
Nonetheless, the sizable year-on-year deficit in aggregate export volumes signals either lower available supply, delayed farmer marketing, or intensified competition from other Black Sea and global origins. Market participants should track whether the current momentum can be sustained through the winter months, when weather-related disruptions often test the resilience of inland and port logistics.
Source: Market Data
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