Germany Wheat Forecast 2026: Harvest Upward Revision

• Slightly Bullish EU Wheat: Lower German wheat output year-on-year may offer modest support to European wheat prices.
• Bearish Black Sea Wheat: Any EU deficit could redirect demand toward competitive Black Sea feed wheat origins.
• Neutral to Slightly Bearish Oilseeds: Higher German rapeseed output may pressure regional oilseed and meal markets.
• Weather-Driven Upside Revision: Recent favorable weather improved Germany’s 2026 wheat outlook versus April estimates.

Germany Revises 2026 Harvest Outlook

The German Agricultural Cooperative Association (DRV) has raised its 2026 wheat harvest forecast to 22.57 million tonnes, a slight improvement from the April estimate of 22.38 million tonnes. Despite the upward revision, the new outlook still implies a 2.5% decline compared with the 2025 crop.

For winter rapeseed, DRV now projects a 2026 harvest of 4.14 million tonnes, marginally below the April forecast of 4.15 million tonnes but 4.3% higher than the previous year’s production. Germany remains the European Union’s second-largest wheat producer and a key rapeseed supplier within the bloc.

Germany Crop Forecasts: Year-on-Year and Versus April

Market Implications for EU and Black Sea Flows

Germany’s slightly lower wheat output, despite improved projections, is broadly neutral to slightly supportive for European prices. As a major EU producer, Germany typically serves different demand bases and quality segments than Black Sea exporters, but tighter German balance sheets could still underpin regional benchmarks.

On the oilseed side, the larger rapeseed crop points to increased availability of rapeseed meal, adding competitive pressure in protein markets where Black Sea sunflower meal also competes. Traders should watch whether reduced German wheat availability encourages more intra-EU and import demand for competitively priced Black Sea feed wheat, particularly in lower-quality blends.

Source: Market Data