- Bearish Ukrainian exports: Grain shipments are down 6 million tons year-on-year to 31.141 million tons, with wheat exports off 20% and barley also sharply lower.
- Supportive for alternative routes: Reduced Ukrainian volumes may redirect cargo flows and bolster freight demand via Russian and Romanian Black Sea ports.
- Freight pressure on Ukraine: The steep slowdown in May shipments—down about 50% versus last year—is bearish for freight rates and backhaul opportunities on Ukrainian routes.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine exported 31.141 million tons of grain and leguminous crops in the 2025/26 marketing year through May 14, down from 37.153 million tons in the same period of 2024/25. The 6 million ton shortfall underscores weaker export performance and tightening availability from Ukrainian ports.
Export activity has slowed markedly in May. Shipments so far this month total just 943 thousand tons, a sharp reduction from 1.885 million tons in May 2024. This represents roughly a 50% year-on-year drop in monthly volumes, highlighting either shrinking exportable supplies, ongoing logistical bottlenecks, or a combination of both.
Exports by Commodity
Corn remains the dominant export, with shipments reaching 17.621 million tons versus 19.808 million tons a year earlier. Wheat exports have fallen more steeply, down to 11.613 million tons from 14.497 million tons, a decline of around 20% year-on-year. Barley exports dropped to 1.467 million tons compared with 2.291 million tons previously, while rye remains negligible at just 0.2 thousand tons.
Flour exports also weakened, totaling 55.1 thousand tons compared with 62.3 thousand tons in 2024/25. Wheat flour dominates this category, accounting for 53.7 thousand tons of the total.
| Category | 2025/26 MY to May 14 (thousand tons) | 2024/25 MY to May 14 (thousand tons) |
|---|---|---|
| Total grain & leguminous exports | 31,141 | 37,153 |
| Wheat | 11,613 | 14,497 |
| Corn | 17,621 | 19,808 |
| Barley | 1,467 | 2,291 |
| Rye | 0.2 | N/A |
| Flour (total) | 55.1 | 62.3 |
| Wheat flour | 53.7 | N/A |
| Period | Monthly Exports (thousand tons) |
|---|---|
| May 2025 (to date) | 943 |
| May 2024 (full month) | 1,885 |
Implications for Black Sea Freight
The 6 million ton year-on-year deficit in Ukrainian grain exports is tightening export flows via Ukrainian Black Sea ports. With May shipments running at less than half last year’s pace, freight demand on Ukrainian routes has softened, weighing on spot employment and backhaul opportunities.
Reduced Ukrainian volumes are likely to redirect cargo to competing origins, particularly Russian and Romanian ports. This rebalancing can lend support to freight rates in alternative Black Sea corridors even as it exerts a bearish influence on Ukrainian-focused freight, especially for wheat and barley programs.
Overall, the steeper-than-expected decline in wheat and barley exports is negative for freight utilization out of Ukraine but may underpin activity and rates from other regional loading points as buyers secure replacement supplies.
Source: Market Data
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