- Record Imports: China’s combined soybean imports from the US and Brazil hit 37 million tonnes in Jan–Apr 2026, up 10% year-on-year and well above the five-year average.
- US Market Share Shift: The US share of Chinese soybean imports jumped to 55% from 41%, reflecting strong late-2025 purchase agreements.
- Brazilian Export Surge: Brazil’s April soybean exports reached a record 16.75 million tonnes, with China alone taking 11.6 million tonnes.
- Pressure on Black Sea Oilseeds: Higher soybean availability in nearby markets (EU, Turkey, etc.) is neutral to bearish for Black Sea sunflower seed and meal prices.
China’s Record Soybean Buying Reshapes Trade Flows
China has sharply accelerated soybean purchases in early 2026, with Oil World reporting combined US and Brazilian shipments to China of 37 million tonnes in January–April. This is 3.5 million tonnes above the same period in 2025 and well above the five-year average of 32.9 million tonnes, underscoring robust Chinese demand for oilseed imports.
US Soybean Export Performance
Following purchase agreements concluded in late 2025, US soybean exports to China in April 2026 surged to 1.56 million tonnes, nearly triple the 0.54 million tonnes shipped in April 2025. Overall US April soybean exports rose to 3.05 million tonnes versus 2.18 million tonnes a year earlier.
| Period | US Soybean Exports (Total) | US Soybean Exports to China |
|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | 2.18 mln t | 0.54 mln t |
| April 2026 | 3.05 mln t | 1.56 mln t |
| 2024/25 Sep–Apr | 44.08 mln t | 22.49 mln t |
| 2025/26 Sep–Apr | 34.04 mln t | 10.78 mln t |
Despite the strong April showing, cumulative US soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (September–April) lag last season, totaling 34.04 million tonnes versus 44.08 million tonnes in 2024/25. Shipments to China are also lower year-on-year at 10.78 million tonnes versus 22.49 million tonnes in the previous season.
Brazil’s Record Soybean Exports
Brazil set a new record in April 2026, exporting 16.75 million tonnes of soybeans—up 2.2 million tonnes month-on-month and 1.5 million tonnes year-on-year. China remained the dominant buyer, taking 11.6 million tonnes versus 9.85 million tonnes in March and 0.8 million tonnes more than in April 2025.
| Period / Buyer | Brazilian Soybean Exports |
|---|---|
| April 2025 (Total) | 15.25 mln t |
| April 2026 (Total) | 16.75 mln t |
| April 2026 to China | 11.60 mln t |
| March 2026 to China | 9.85 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2025 (Total) | 37.43 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2026 (Total) | 40.24 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2026 to China | 27.61 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2026 to EU | 3.21 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2026 to Turkey | 1.52 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2026 to Thailand | 1.28 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2025 to EU | 2.34 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2025 to Turkey | 0.93 mln t |
| Jan–Apr 2025 to Thailand | 0.99 mln t |
Year-to-date through April 2026, Brazil shipped 40.24 million tonnes of soybeans, up from 37.43 million tonnes a year earlier. China received 27.61 million tonnes, while other key destinations also increased buying: the EU to 3.21 million tonnes, Turkey to 1.52 million tonnes, and Thailand to 1.28 million tonnes.
Implications for Black Sea Oilseeds and Regional Logistics
The current trade pattern is neutral to bearish for Black Sea oilseeds. Strong Chinese demand for US and Brazilian soybeans expands soybean and meal availability in alternative destinations such as the EU and Turkey, which are key outlets for Black Sea sunflower seed and meal. Increased competition from competitively priced Brazilian soybeans in these nearby markets may cap prices and force Black Sea exporters to sharpen their pricing and quality offers.
Logistics coordinators should closely track whether shifting flows from South America to the EU, Turkey, and other regional buyers impact freight rates and vessel availability on Black Sea and Mediterranean routes. Any softening in freight costs could partially offset weaker oilseed prices, while tighter tonnage could erode margins further for regional exporters.
Source: Market Data
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