- Bearish corn outlook for Black Sea exporters: Brazil’s upgraded 2025/26 corn forecast to 137 mln t signals stronger export competition and potential pressure on Ukrainian and Russian FOB premiums.
- Higher Brazilian soybean output: Soybean production raised to 181.6 mln t on better yields and expanded acreage in Rio Grande do Sul, reinforcing Brazil’s dominance in global oilseed trade.
- Steady second-crop corn, stronger first-crop: First-crop corn raised to 28.3 mln t while second-crop remains at 106.1 mln t, supporting aggressive Brazilian export availability into key demand regions.
Brazilian Corn and Soybean Production Update
StoneX has revised Brazil’s 2025/26 corn production forecast up to 137 million tonnes, from 135.7 million tonnes in April. The upgrade is driven mainly by a 4% increase in the first-crop corn estimate to 28.3 million tonnes, while the larger second-crop projection remains unchanged at 106.1 million tonnes.
At the same time, Brazil’s soybean outlook has been lifted by around 1% to 181.6 million tonnes. The change reflects stronger-than-expected yields and expanded planted area in Rio Grande do Sul, where production is now seen at 21 million tonnes.
| Crop | Previous Forecast (mln t) | New Forecast (mln t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn – Total 2025/26 | 135.7 | 137.0 | +1.3 |
| Corn – First Crop | 27.2* | 28.3 | +4% (*implied) |
| Corn – Second Crop | 106.1 | 106.1 | No change |
| Soybeans – Total | ~179.8 | 181.6 | +~1% |
| Soybeans – Rio Grande do Sul | n/a | 21.0 | Higher yields/acreage |
Market Impact: Increased Competition for Black Sea Corn
Higher Brazilian corn output is bearish for Black Sea exporters, as it enhances Brazil’s ability to offer aggressively priced supplies into overlapping demand hubs such as Egypt, Iran, and Southeast Asia. With first-crop volumes expanding and second-crop levels maintained, Brazilian exporters are positioned to sustain competitive FOB offers through 2025/26.
This dynamic could compress FOB premiums for Ukrainian and Russian corn, especially during the second half of 2025 when Brazilian export flows are expected to be strong. Market participants should closely track Brazilian planting progress, weather, and early yield reports; any further upward revisions to production would likely intensify global competition and add additional downward pressure on Black Sea corn price benchmarks.
Source: Market Data
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