- Export Growth: Kazakhstan’s grain and flour exports rose 13% year-on-year to 11.1 million tons in September-April 2025/26.
- Uzbekistan Demand: Uzbekistan absorbed 84% of total exports, with volumes up 13.8% to 9.3 million tons.
- Diversifying Flows: Afghanistan (+51% to 1.8 million tons) and Kyrgyzstan (+58% to 440,000 tons) showed the strongest growth.
- Logistics & Policy Support: Improved infrastructure and government measures are underpinning Kazakhstan’s regional export expansion.
- Freight Outlook: Sustained southbound grain flows imply a neutral to slightly bullish stance on regional freight rates through Q2 2026.
Kazakhstan Grain Export Performance
Kazakhstan exported 11.1 million tons of grain and flour (grain equivalent) in the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year (September-April), up 13% from 9.8 million tons a year earlier. The figures, compiled by JSC NC Kazakhstan Temir Zholy and reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, underscore the country’s growing role as a key grain supplier in Central Asia.
Destination Breakdown and Growth Dynamics
Uzbekistan remains by far the dominant buyer, accounting for 84% of total exports. Shipments to the country climbed 13.8% year-on-year, reaching 9.3 million tons versus 8.2 million tons previously. Afghanistan posted the most robust growth, with volumes surging 51% to 1.8 million tons, while Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan also showed strong expansion from relatively smaller bases.
| Destination Country | Sep–Apr 2024/25 (tons) | Sep–Apr 2025/26 (tons) | Absolute Change (tons) | Growth Rate | Share of 2025/26 Exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | 8,200,000 | 9,300,000 | +1,100,000 | +13.8% | 84% |
| Afghanistan | 1,200,000 | 1,800,000 | +600,000 | +51.0% | 16% |
| Kyrgyzstan | 278,000 | 440,000 | +162,000 | +58.3% | — |
| Turkmenistan | 123,000 | 183,000 | +60,000 | +48.8% | — |
| Total (all destinations) | 9,800,000 | 11,100,000 | +1,300,000 | +13.3% | 100% |
Drivers and Market Implications
The export momentum reflects stable demand from traditional Central Asian partners, better logistics infrastructure, and targeted government support for agriculture. However, the concentration of 84% of exports into Uzbekistan highlights both the strength and vulnerability of Kazakhstan’s current market structure, leaving diversification as an ongoing strategic priority.
Regional Logistics and Freight Outlook
Rising grain shipments to Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan point to sustained rail and road cargo flows along southbound corridors through at least Q2 2026. For operators on the Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan–Afghanistan routes in particular, the 13% overall export increase supports a neutral to slightly bullish view on regional freight rates, assuming no major policy or infrastructure disruptions.
Source: Market Data
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