- Kazakh wheat exports to Afghanistan more than doubled to 507.65 thousand tons in H1 2025/26 MY, up 104% year-on-year.
- Afghanistan has become the 3rd largest buyer of Kazakh wheat, underscoring a strategic shift in regional grain trade flows.
- Flour exports to Afghanistan edged lower to 667 thousand tons, down from 685 thousand tons in the same period last season.
- Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat, as higher Kazakh wheat exports add competition in Central Asian markets and weigh on flour margins.
Kazakhstan–Afghanistan Grain Trade Shift
Official data for September–February 2025/26 MY show a marked rebalancing in Kazakhstan’s grain trade with Afghanistan. Wheat exports surged to 507.65 thousand tons, more than double the 248.65 thousand tons shipped during the same period of the previous marketing year. This volume increase has lifted Afghanistan to third place among destinations for Kazakh wheat.
In contrast, Kazakhstan’s traditionally strong flour trade into Afghanistan has softened. Flour exports slipped to 667 thousand tons in the first half of 2025/26 MY, down 18 thousand tons from 685 thousand tons a year earlier. While the decline is modest in absolute terms, it underscores a gradual preference shift toward importing raw wheat rather than higher-value processed flour.
| Indicator | H1 2024/25 MY | H1 2025/26 MY | Absolute Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakh wheat exports to Afghanistan (thousand tons) | 248.65 | 507.65 | +259.00 | +104% |
| Kazakh flour exports to Afghanistan (thousand tons) | 685.00 | 667.00 | -18.00 | -2.6% |
Market Impact and Regional Dynamics
The sharp increase in raw wheat exports suggests Kazakhstan is prioritizing grain shipments over domestic value-added processing. For regional traders, this shift implies additional Kazakh-origin wheat competing in Central Asian import programs, potentially pressuring prices for other Black Sea exporters targeting similar demand.
Kazakh millers have raised concerns that stronger competition from raw grain exports is eroding the international competitiveness of Kazakh flour. As Afghanistan sources more wheat and diversifies imports into other Kazakh products such as sunflower oil, regional flour trade flows may gradually recalibrate, reinforcing a neutral to slightly bearish tone for Black Sea wheat and flour markets.
Source: Market Data
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