- Export Surge: Uzbekistan’s wheat flour exports jumped 42.3% year-on-year to 1.6 million tons worth $441.7 million in 2025.
- Import Decline: Flour imports fell 10.3% to 422.6 thousand tons, signaling rising domestic milling capacity and import substitution.
- Regional Tensions: Kazakh millers report increased competition as Uzbek processors use Kazakh wheat for flour re-exports.
- Freight Impact: Expanded Uzbek milling is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat freight, with more flows shifting overland within the region.
Uzbekistan Flour Trade Snapshot (2025)
| Indicator | 2025 Volume (tons) | 2025 Value (USD) | Y/Y Change (tons) | Y/Y Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat Flour Exports | 1,600,000 | $441,700,000 | +473,300 | +42.3% |
| Wheat Flour Imports | 422,600 | $124,600,000 | -48,300 | -10.3% |
Market Update
Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee reports that the country exported around 1.6 million tons of wheat flour valued at $441.7 million to five countries in 2025. This marks an increase of 473.3 thousand tons, or 42.3%, versus the previous year and underscores Uzbekistan’s rapid emergence as a regional flour exporter.
At the same time, wheat flour imports fell to 422.6 thousand tons worth $124.6 million, a decline of 48.3 thousand tons (10.3%) year-on-year. The combination of higher exports and lower imports points to expanding domestic milling capacity and a shift from importing finished flour to processing more wheat locally.
According to APK-Inform, Kazakh millers are increasingly concerned that Uzbekistan is importing wheat from Kazakhstan, processing it into flour, and then re-exporting the value-added product to international markets. This alters regional trade dynamics and intensifies competition with Kazakhstan’s own flour export sector.
Freight and Regional Milling Dynamics
From a freight perspective, the development is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat freight in the near term. Greater Uzbek milling capacity may redirect some Kazakh wheat flows overland toward Uzbekistan rather than through Black Sea export terminals. The ultimate impact will depend on where the five main flour-importing countries are located and how closely they are linked to Black Sea supply routes.
If these markets can be served efficiently via overland or regional routes from Uzbekistan, demand for direct Black Sea wheat shipments could soften at the margin. However, if the shift primarily reflects regional value-addition—Kazakh wheat milled in Uzbekistan and then shipped onward—the total volume of grain-related movements may remain broadly stable, with only the logistics and value chain distribution changing.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply