- Bearish EU exports: European Commission cuts 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes amid stronger Argentine competition, lifting projected EU ending stocks.
- Supportive for Black Sea flows: Novorossiysk wheat loadings in January 2026 rise 9.8% year-on-year, underscoring steady Black Sea export presence despite a month-on-month slowdown.
- Stable production outlook: EU total grain output pegged at 287.4 million tonnes, with higher corn and lower soft wheat, while Turkmenistan reports favorable winter wheat conditions in Ahal province.
- Neutral-to-slightly bearish price tone: Ample global supply from the EU, Black Sea, and Argentina keeps competitive pressure on exporters, limiting bullish momentum for Black Sea wheat prices.
EU Grain Balance and Export Outlook
The European Commission lowered its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to 29.5 million tonnes from 31 million tonnes, primarily due to intensified competition from Argentina’s record crop. This adjustment pushed projected EU soft wheat ending stocks higher, from 11.7 to 13 million tonnes, indicating weaker demand for European origin on the world market.
Barley projections moved in the opposite direction: exports were increased from 10.1 to 11 million tonnes, while carryover stocks were reduced from 6.1 to 4.2 million tonnes, suggesting firmer demand for EU barley. On the production side, EU corn output was revised up to 58.2 million tonnes from 57.8 million tonnes, while the soft wheat harvest estimate eased to 134.2 million tonnes. Total EU grain production now stands at 287.4 million tonnes.
Black Sea Wheat Shipments via Novorossiysk
In the Black Sea, Russia’s Novorossiysk port handled 1.396 million tonnes of wheat in January 2026. Although this was a 20.3% decline from December’s 1.752 million tonnes, it marked a 9.8% increase versus January 2025, confirming resilient export flows despite seasonal slowdown.
| Period / Destination | Wheat Volume (million tonnes) | Change vs. Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Novorossiysk – Jan 2026 total | 1.396 | -20.3% vs. Dec 2025 / +9.8% vs. Jan 2025 |
| Shipments to Egypt (Jan 2026) | 0.671 | Primary destination |
| Shipments to Sudan (Jan 2026) | 0.201 | Key African buyer |
| Shipments to Turkey (Jan 2026) | 0.165 | Regional buyer |
Egypt remained the main buyer with 670,700 tonnes, followed by Sudan at 201,000 tonnes and Turkey at 164,700 tonnes. This destination mix highlights continued reliance of MENA importers on Black Sea wheat, even as they diversify coverage across other origins.
Turkmenistan Winter Wheat Conditions
In Central Asia, Turkmenistan’s Ahal province reported favorable development for winter wheat across 10,100 hectares in the Geokdepe district. Farmers are using high-yielding, drought-resistant varieties and have completed pre-sowing preparations on schedule, supporting prospects for an early summer harvest.
Market Implications
The cut in EU soft wheat exports, combined with larger ending stocks, is neutral to slightly bearish for global prices but opens incremental space for Black Sea suppliers if they can maintain a freight and price advantage. However, Argentina’s strong export program is a headwind for all origins. Steady Novorossiysk shipments confirm that Black Sea wheat remains highly competitive into Egypt and neighboring markets, while the broader supply picture argues against aggressive price rallies in the near term.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply