- Bearish flour market: Russian wheat flour prices fell 3–8% year-on-year in December, led by an 8% drop in second-grade flour amid ample wheat supply and softer demand.
- Bullish sunflower oil: Black Sea sunflower oil strengthened to $1,305/t FOB, bucking declines in rival vegetable oils and signaling firm regional demand and tighter supply.
- Mixed protein complex: Soybean meal in Brazil hit a weekly high while rapeseed and sunflower meals softened, reflecting shifting crush economics and feed demand.
- Weaker oilseeds: Soybeans and rapeseed eased across major benchmarks, adding downward pressure to most vegetable oils except Black Sea sunflower oil.
Russian Flour Price Moves
Russian flour processors lowered selling prices in December versus the same month in 2024, reflecting comfortable wheat availability and subdued domestic demand. Premium wheat bakery flour fell 4% to 23,968 rubles per ton, first-grade flour declined 4% to 20,860 rubles per ton, and second-grade flour posted the sharpest drop, down 8% to 17,089 rubles per ton. Rye flour diverged from the wheat complex, rising 5% to 19,890 rubles per ton.
| Flour Type (Russia) | Price (RUB/t) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|
| Premium wheat bakery flour | 23,968 | -4% |
| First-grade wheat flour | 20,860 | -4% |
| Second-grade wheat flour | 17,089 | -8% |
| Rye flour | 19,890 | +5% |
Vegetable Oil Market Update
Black Sea sunflower oil prices strengthened despite broad weakness in competing vegetable oils. Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea reached $1,305/t on January 30, 2026, up $15/t day-on-day. In contrast, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all moved lower across key export hubs.
| Vegetable Oil | Location / Benchmark | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | 1,305.00 | +15.00 | Day-on-day gain |
| Soybean oil | FOB EU | 1,285.01 | -19.03 | Weekly low |
| Soybean oil | FOB Brazil | 1,169.82 | -11.04 | |
| Soybean oil | US CBOT | 1,179.69 | -11.46 | Weekly low |
| Palm oil | FOB Malaysia | 1,092.01 | -22.39 | |
| Rapeseed oil | FOB Netherlands | 1,235.78 | -18.56 |
Meals and Oilseeds
In the meals segment, Brazil soybean meal led gains while rapeseed and sunflower meals slipped. Oilseed prices were broadly weaker, with soybeans and rapeseed under pressure across major benchmarks.
| Meal | Location / Benchmark | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean meal | FOB Brazil | 330.14 | +2.19 | Weekly high |
| Rapeseed meal | FOB EU | 271.33 | -21.91 | Largest decline |
| Sunflower meal | CIF France | 260.66 | -2.65 | Weekly low |
| Oilseed | Location / Benchmark | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | FOB Brazil | 410.24 | -3.68 | Weekly low |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | 391.04 | -2.94 | |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | 574.64 | -10.04 |
Market Analysis and Trading Implications
The broad decline in Russian wheat flour prices underscores comfortable domestic wheat supplies and potentially softer end-user demand, especially in lower-value segments where second-grade flour saw the sharpest drop. Rye flour’s price increase points to relatively tighter supply or stable demand in that niche.
In contrast, Black Sea sunflower oil’s firming prices against a backdrop of weaker soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils highlight origin-specific support, likely tied to regional supply constraints or resilient demand. This divergence may sustain strong crush margins for Russian and Ukrainian processors in the near term, even as cheaper competing oils create substitution opportunities. Traders should monitor whether sunflower oil’s premium persists or narrows as global vegetable oil benchmarks adjust.
Source: Market Data
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