- Bullish: Russia’s December 2025 ag exports to China hit a record $1+ billion, led by $215 million in rapeseed oil, with 2025 production and export volumes forecast to jump 20% and 29.7% year-on-year.
- Bearish: China’s tariff cut on Canadian canola from 84% to 15% and resumption of imports pushed Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures down 2.4%, heightening competitive pressure on Black Sea oilseed exporters.
Russia–China Agricultural Trade Milestone
Russia set a new record in December 2025 by exporting 1.3 million tons of agricultural products to China worth over $1 billion, surpassing the previous value record of $812 million from October 2025 and the physical volume record of 1.14 million tons from September 2023. The performance underscores China’s growing reliance on Russian agri-food supplies and Russia’s strengthening role in Asia-focused commodity flows.
Export Composition and Rapeseed Oil Dynamics
Rapeseed oil led Russia’s December shipment mix with export values of $215 million, well ahead of live crabs at $159 million, flax seeds at $74 million, pollock at $65 million, and herring at $55 million. OleoScope forecasts Russian rapeseed oil production at 1.55 million tons in 2025, about 20% above the 2024 level of 1.29 million tons, with exports projected at 1.5 million tons. China is expected to absorb 1.28 million tons of these exports, implying a 24% year-on-year increase and cementing its status as Russia’s key outlet for oilseed products.
| Item | Period / Detail | Volume / Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Russian ag exports to China | Dec 2025 | $1.0+ billion; 1.3 million tons | Value record vs. $812m (Oct 2025) |
| Previous value record | Oct 2025 | $812 million | — |
| Previous physical volume record | Sep 2023 | 1.14 million tons | — |
| Rapeseed oil exports to China | Dec 2025 | $215 million | Led export basket |
| Live crab exports to China | Dec 2025 | $159 million | — |
| Flax seed exports to China | Dec 2025 | $74 million | — |
| Pollock exports to China | Dec 2025 | $65 million | — |
| Herring exports to China | Dec 2025 | $55 million | — |
| Russian rapeseed oil production | 2024 | 1.29 million tons | -14% vs. 1.5m (2023 est.) |
| Russian rapeseed oil production (forecast) | 2025 | 1.55 million tons | +20% YoY vs. 2024 |
| Russian rapeseed oil exports (forecast) | 2025 | 1.5 million tons | +29.7% YoY |
| China-bound rapeseed oil (forecast) | 2025 | 1.28 million tons | +24% YoY |
| Canadian canola sale to China | March 2025 shipment | 60,000 tonnes | First shipment since Oct suspension |
| Tariff on Canadian canola | Pre-March 1 | ~84% | — |
| Tariff on Canadian canola | From March 1 | ~15% | Significant reduction |
| Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures | Monday session | -2.4% | Lowest in 1+ year |
| Australian canola sales to China (COFCO) | Recent period | ~500,000 tonnes | Facing new competition |
Canada–China Trade Normalization and Market Reaction
A major shift emerged on the Canada–China axis as a Chinese buyer booked 60,000 tonnes of Canadian canola for March shipment, the first such deal since Beijing suspended imports in October. The move followed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing and coincided with China cutting tariffs on Canadian canola to roughly 15% from 84% effective March 1 under a new trade agreement. The tariff relief sharply improves Canada’s price competitiveness, triggering a 2.4% decline in Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures to their lowest levels in over a year and raising expectations of additional Canadian and Australian flows into China.
Implications for Black Sea Rapeseed and Canola
The evolving trade landscape is bearish for Black Sea rapeseed and canola markets. The reopening of Canadian supply to China at substantially lower tariffs intensifies competition for Russian and Ukrainian exporters already ramping up output. The immediate pressure on rapeseed meal futures reflects broader expectations of increased global oilseed availability and potential margin compression. While Russia’s record December shipments and strong bilateral ties with China provide some insulation, Black Sea-origin sellers may need to adjust pricing and logistics strategies as Chinese buyers diversify across Canadian and Australian origins into Q2 2025.
Source: Market Data
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