Brazil Soybean Exports Surge, Threatening Black Sea Origins

• Bullish Brazil: January soybean exports projected at a record 3.73 million tonnes, supported by strong Chinese demand and 7 million tonnes of carryover stocks.
• Bearish Black Sea: Intensified competition from Brazilian beans pressures Black Sea-origin soy and sunmeal, capping crush margins and narrowing the window of opportunity before Brazil’s new-crop flows ramp up.

Brazil’s Record January Soybean Export Outlook

Anec has sharply raised its forecast for Brazil’s January soybean exports to 3.73 million tonnes, marking a record for the month. This is an increase of 1.3 million tonnes from the previous weekly estimate and more than triple the 1.07 million tonnes shipped in January 2025.

The revision reflects robust Chinese buying of Brazilian soybeans, alongside logistical catch-up after December rains disrupted normal loading programs and pushed delayed volumes into January. Abiove estimates Brazil began the year with around 7 million tonnes of soybean carryover stocks, providing ample pre-harvest exportable supply.

Harvest Progress and Supply Timing

Harvest of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop remains in its early stages, with farmers having collected just 0.6% of the planned area as of January 8. This keeps near-term supply relatively tight, but record January shipments indicate that carryover stocks are effectively bridging the gap until new-crop volumes accelerate into late January and February.

Black Sea Market Impact

The surge in Brazilian exports is structurally bearish for Black Sea-origin soy and protein meals. Expanded Brazilian availability—backed by large carryover stocks and strong Chinese demand—reinforces South America’s dominance in global soybean flows during this period. Black Sea soymeal and sunmeal producers may face pressure on export competitiveness and crush margins as Brazilian beans anchor global pricing.

While the still-limited Brazilian harvest offers a short-lived window for Black Sea products in select markets, the record pace of January shipments signals that South American supply will increasingly crowd out alternative origins as the 2025/26 crop comes to market.

Source: Market Data