- USDA upgrade: Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast raised to 9.5 million tonnes on stronger early-season shipments.
- Export surge: September–November 2025 wheat exports jumped 29% year-on-year to 2.34 million tonnes.
- Uzbekistan demand: Uzbekistan imported 1.47 million tonnes of Kazakh wheat in three months, cementing its role as Kazakhstan’s key buyer.
- Ample regional supply: Stable Kazakh production at 18.9 million tonnes and strong Black Sea competition keep the outlook neutral to slightly bearish.
- Mixed global prices: U.S. wheat futures firmed modestly while Paris MATIF milling wheat eased, reflecting balanced but well-supplied markets.
Kazakhstan Wheat Export Outlook
The USDA lifted Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 9.5 million tonnes in its January update, while keeping production unchanged at 18.9 million tonnes. The revision reflects a sharp acceleration in early-season shipments, highlighting Kazakhstan’s growing role in regional grain supply.
Between September and November 2025, Kazakhstan exported 2.34 million tonnes of wheat, up 29% from 1.82 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier, according to APK-Inform. This stronger pace front-loads exports in the marketing year and underscores the robust demand from neighboring importers.
Uzbekistan’s Central Role in Regional Trade
Uzbekistan remains the dominant buyer of Kazakh wheat, taking 1.47 million tonnes in September–November 2025 alone. Total wheat and flour imports from Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan reached 2.0 million tonnes over July–November, confirming the strength of this corridor.
In addition to grain, Uzbekistan imported 102,700 tonnes of Kazakh flour in the first three months of the season, equivalent to 137,000 tonnes of grain, with July–November flour imports reaching 213,100 tonnes in grain equivalent. These flows consolidate Kazakhstan’s position as Uzbekistan’s primary wheat supplier.
The USDA currently projects Uzbekistan’s wheat imports at 4.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, up from 4.1 million tonnes in 2024/25. However, official Kazakhstan statistics indicate that 2024/25 exports to Uzbekistan already totaled 4.3 million tonnes (3.7 million tonnes wheat plus 590,000 tonnes flour in grain equivalent), suggesting that official projections may be conservative if current demand trends persist.
Global Wheat Price Snapshot
| Contract / Market | Settlement Price (per tonne) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT March Soft Red Winter Wheat | $188.31 | +0.39% |
| Kansas City March Hard Red Winter Wheat | $191.89 | n/a |
| Minneapolis March Hard Spring Wheat | $208.33 | n/a |
| Paris MATIF March Milling Wheat | $219.76 | -0.99% |
On January 14, 2026, U.S. wheat futures posted modest gains, with CBOT March soft red winter wheat settling at $188.31 per tonne (+0.39%), Kansas City March hard red winter wheat at $191.89 per tonne, and Minneapolis March hard spring wheat at $208.33 per tonne. In contrast, Paris MATIF March milling wheat fell 0.99% to $219.76 per tonne as FranceAgriMer trimmed its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast outside the EU to 7.50 million tonnes from 7.60 million tonnes.
Regional Market Implications
The combination of stronger Kazakh exports and stable production at 18.9 million tonnes is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea suppliers, adding incremental supply to an already well-stocked regional market. The expanding Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan corridor may gradually displace some traditional Black Sea-origin wheat in Central Asia, particularly for land-based trade.
Nevertheless, Kazakhstan’s landlocked geography and logistics constraints limit its competitiveness in maritime markets, where Russian and Ukrainian exporters continue to hold advantages in freight and port access. While reduced French export projections could open selective opportunities, overall global and regional wheat availability remains ample, capping upside price potential in the near term.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply