- Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: China’s growing role as a soybean oil exporter increases competition in key Asian markets traditionally supplied by Black Sea origins.
- Supportive for Palm Oil: Strong growth in Chinese palm oil imports signals sustained demand for cheaper vegetable oil alternatives over premium Black Sea oils.
- Moderately Supportive for Sunflower Oil: Recovery in Chinese sunflower oil imports offers some demand support, though volumes remain modest relative to palm oil.
- Structurally Mixed for Vegetable Oils: China’s dual position as a large importer of palm/soft oils and exporter of soybean oil reshapes trade flows and margins for competing origins.
China’s Vegetable Oil Trade Reconfiguration
China sharply increased its vegetable oil imports in November 2025, with total arrivals reaching 947,000 tonnes, up by 300,000 tonnes year-on-year. The bulk of this growth came from palm oil, underscoring China’s preference for competitively priced oils in a cost-sensitive demand environment.
Palm, Rapeseed, Sunflower and Soybean Oil Flows
| Commodity | November 2025 Volume (tonnes) | October 2025 Volume (tonnes) | November 2024 Volume (tonnes) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Vegetable Oil Imports (China) | 947,000 | N/A | 647,000 | Up 300,000 tonnes year-on-year |
| Palm Oil Imports (China) | 565,000 | 441,000 | 345,000 | Strong month-on-month and year-on-year growth |
| of which Indonesia | 443,000 | N/A | N/A | Dominant supplier |
| of which Malaysia | 117,000 | N/A | N/A | Secondary supplier |
| Rapeseed Oil Imports (China) | 166,000 | 141,000 | 199,000 | Seven-month high but still below last year |
| Sunflower Oil Imports (China) | 49,000 | 32,000 | 37,000 | Recovering demand from low October levels |
| Soybean Oil Imports (China) | 51,000 | 22,000 | N/A | Rebound in import demand |
| Soybean Oil Exports (China) | 111,000 | N/A | N/A | Second-largest global exporter in November |
Palm oil was the primary driver of the import surge, with volumes rising to 565,000 tonnes versus 441,000 tonnes in October and 345,000 tonnes a year earlier. Indonesia supplied 443,000 tonnes and Malaysia 117,000 tonnes, reinforcing Southeast Asia’s dominance in China’s palm oil supply chain.
Rapeseed oil imports climbed to a seven-month high of 166,000 tonnes, up from 141,000 tonnes in October but still trailing the 199,000 tonnes imported in November 2024. This uptick was insufficient to offset reduced domestic production, keeping the market relatively tight.
Sunflower oil imports recovered to 49,000 tonnes after a weak October (32,000 tonnes), modestly above the 37,000 tonnes recorded a year earlier. Soybean oil imports also rebounded to 51,000 tonnes from 22,000 tonnes in the previous month, signaling broader restocking across the soft oils complex.
China as a Key Soybean Oil Exporter
Alongside higher imports, China exported 111,000 tonnes of soybean oil in November 2025, elevating the country to the position of the world’s second-largest soybean oil exporter for the month. Major outlets included India, South Korea and other regional buyers, where Chinese product now competes directly with shipments from Russia, Brazil, the United States and Ukraine.
Implications for Black Sea Sunflower Oil Exporters
The net impact on Black Sea exporters is neutral to slightly bearish. On the supportive side, China’s recovering sunflower oil imports provide incremental demand for Ukrainian and other Black Sea origins. However, China’s emergence as a sizeable soybean oil exporter into Asia increases competition in key import markets that previously relied more heavily on Black Sea sunflower and other vegetable oils.
The continued expansion of Chinese palm oil imports, driven by its cost advantage, further caps upside for premium oils from the Black Sea region. As Chinese buyers prioritize cheaper palm and domestically processed soybean oil, the demand growth trajectory for higher-priced sunflower and rapeseed oils remains constrained, pressuring margins and challenging Black Sea exporters to differentiate on quality, sustainability or logistics.
Source: Market Data
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