- Corn duties: Export tax on Argentine corn to fall from 8.5% to 5.5% by end-2028, via gradual quarterly cuts.
- Soybean duties: Soybean export tax to decline from 24% to 15% over 2027–2028 through monthly reductions.
- Policy shift: Measures complement recently announced wheat duty cuts, signaling a broader easing of Argentina’s grain export regime.
- Market impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea corn as Argentine competitiveness improves, especially from 2028 onward.
Argentina’s Export Duty Changes
Argentina has announced a phased reduction in export duties for corn and soybeans through the end of 2028, extending the liberalization of its grain export regime that began with last week’s wheat duty cuts under President José María Milei.
Corn Export Duty Schedule
The Economy Ministry confirmed that the corn export duty will move down from its current 8.5% level to 5.5% by December 2028. The reduction will be implemented via quarterly cuts, with a slower pace in 2027 and an accelerated pace in 2028.
| Year | Period | Change per Period | Approx. End-Year Duty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | 8.5% |
| 2027 | Quarterly | -0.25 percentage points | 7.5% |
| 2028 | Quarterly | -0.50 percentage points | 5.5% |
Soybean Export Duty Schedule
Soybean export duties will follow a more granular monthly path, declining from 24% to 15% by end-2028. The pace will be moderate in 2027 and faster in 2028, mirroring the pattern set for corn.
| Year | Period | Change per Period | Approx. End-Year Duty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | — | — | 24.0% |
| 2027 | Monthly | -0.25 percentage points | 21.0% |
| 2028 | Monthly | -0.50 percentage points | 15.0% |
Market Impact and Black Sea Corn Outlook
The gradual duty cuts are expected to provide only a limited boost to Argentina’s export competitiveness in the near term, as corn duties fall just 1 percentage point over 2027. The more substantial decline in 2028, when corn duties drop to 5.5% and soybean duties to 15%, could support higher Argentine export volumes, particularly if farmers respond by increasing planted area and sales.
For Black Sea corn exporters, the news is neutral to slightly bearish. Incremental competition from Argentine origin will likely build over the next two years, with a more noticeable impact in 2028 as the duty cuts accumulate. Nonetheless, the relatively modest total reduction in corn duties (3 percentage points) and the long implementation horizon limit the scope for abrupt shifts in trade flows. Market participants should track Argentine farmer selling patterns, forward export programs, and any additional policy refinements that could accelerate or slow this liberalization path.
Source: Market Data
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