- Soybean Imports Cut: China aims to reduce soybean imports by 26.2% to 82.55 million tonnes by 2035 versus the 2025 record of 111.83 million tonnes.
- Higher Domestic Output: Domestic grain production is projected to rise to 753 million tonnes by 2035, up 5.3% from 2025.
- Lower Grain Imports: Total grain imports are expected to fall from 140.56 million tonnes in 2025 to 115 million tonnes in 2035.
- Bearish for Exporters: The planned import reduction is structurally bearish for global soybean exporters, including Black Sea suppliers.
- Price Outlook: Agricultural prices are expected to remain stable in the near term, with a tendency to move higher within a one-year horizon.
China’s Long-Term Soybean and Grain Import Strategy
China’s Ministry of Agriculture has outlined a long-term strategy to reduce reliance on imported soybeans and grain in its “China’s Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035” report released on April 20. The plan targets a substantial reduction in soybean imports while steadily increasing domestic grain production over the next decade.
| Indicator | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | Change 2025–2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybean Imports (million tonnes) | 111.83 | – | 82.55 | -26.2% (≈ -29.28 million tonnes) |
| Domestic Grain Production (million tonnes) | ≈715 (baseline) | 733 | 753 | +5.3% vs 2025 |
| Total Grain Imports (million tonnes) | 140.56 | – | 115.00 | ≈ -25.56 million tonnes |
Market Update
The outlook projects soybean imports falling from a record 111.83 million tonnes in 2025 to 82.55 million tonnes by 2035, a reduction of nearly 30 million tonnes. This shift reflects Beijing’s effort to boost oilseed self-sufficiency and reduce exposure to external supply and price risks.
Domestic grain production is expected to climb to 733 million tonnes by 2030 (around 2.5% above 2025 levels) and further to 753 million tonnes by 2035 (5.3% higher than 2025). Over the same period, total grain imports are forecast to decline from 140.56 million tonnes to 115 million tonnes, indicating a gradual rebalancing toward domestic supply.
The report suggests that agricultural prices for most commodities should remain relatively stable in the near term, with a tendency to firm and move higher within a one-year timeframe as structural demand and policy changes filter through the market.
Impact on Black Sea Soybean Exporters
The planned 26% cut in Chinese soybean imports is structurally bearish for major exporters and particularly challenging for emerging origins such as the Black Sea region. As China remains the largest global soybean buyer, a shrinking import requirement will intensify competition among suppliers for limited Chinese demand.
Black Sea producers are likely to face stronger competition from established South American exporters, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices and margins. While the policy horizon extends to 2035, the direction of travel is clear, and market participants should closely track China’s domestic production gains, yield improvements, and any supporting policy measures that could accelerate import substitution.
For traders and exporters, this implies a need to diversify destination markets, refine cost structures, and potentially develop value-added or niche products to mitigate the risk of a structurally smaller Chinese soybean import market.
Source: Market Data
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