- Bearish sunflower seed outlook: Kazakhstan’s sunflower seed stocks surged to 1.47 million tons, more than double year-ago levels, signaling ample supply and potential price pressure.
- Record oilseed harvest: A bumper 2025 crop of 4.8 million tons, including 2.3 million tons of sunflower seeds, is driving high carryover stocks across most oilseeds.
- Broad-based stock increases: Rapeseed and safflower inventories rose sharply to 271 thousand tons and 94 thousand tons respectively, while soybean stocks remain stable around 56 thousand tons.
- Stronger export pressure likely: Elevated inventories suggest Kazakhstan will stay an active seller in the Black Sea region, potentially weighing on regional oilseed prices.
Kazakhstan Oilseed Stocks Overview
Kazakhstan’s sunflower seed stocks reached approximately 1.47 million tons as of April 1, more than double the 0.7 million tons held on the same date a year earlier. This sharp increase underscores a significant build-up in available supplies heading into the new marketing year.
The rise in sunflower stocks is part of a broader expansion in oilseed inventories. Total oilseed stocks climbed to 842 thousand tons compared with 386 thousand tons on April 1, 2025. Rapeseed stocks increased to 271 thousand tons from 134 thousand tons, and safflower stocks rose to 94 thousand tons from 74 thousand tons. In contrast, soybean stocks remained broadly unchanged at around 56 thousand tons.
Oilseed Stock Levels: Year-on-Year Comparison
| Commodity | Stocks as of Apr 1, Latest (thousand tons) | Stocks as of Apr 1, Prior Year (thousand tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower seed | 1,470 | 700 | +110% |
| Total oilseeds | 842 | 386 | +118% |
| Rapeseed | 271 | 134 | +102% |
| Safflower | 94 | 74 | +27% |
| Soybeans | 56 | 56 | 0% |
Record 2025 Oilseed Harvest
The substantial carryover reflects Kazakhstan’s record 2025 oilseed harvest of 4.8 million tons. The crop included 2.3 million tons of sunflower seeds, 1.4 million tons of flax, and 522 thousand tons of rapeseed, reinforcing the country’s role as a key oilseed supplier in the wider Black Sea region.
Market Implications and Price Outlook
Bearish for sunflower seeds: The doubling of sunflower seed stocks, alongside elevated inventories of rapeseed and safflower, points to abundant supply and potential downward pressure on regional prices. With significant volumes to clear before the next harvest, Kazakhstan is likely to maintain strong export programs, intensifying competition in nearby markets.
Market participants should closely track Kazakhstan’s export pace and any changes in logistics or policy that could impact flows. Given the combination of record production and high carryover, Kazakhstan is expected to remain an active seller over the coming months, particularly in sunflower seeds and related oilseed products.
Source: Market Data
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