- Bullish for Indonesian palm oil exports: February shipments rose 17% year-on-year to 2.69 million tonnes, with October–February volumes up 19% to 12.23 million tonnes.
- Bearish for Black Sea vegetable oils: Strong Indonesian supply and competitive pricing are crowding out sunflower oil in key markets like China and the EU, potentially pressuring Black Sea freight and margins.
- China demand shift: Chinese imports of Indonesian palm oil nearly doubled to 2.30 million tonnes in the first five months of the season, reshaping global vegetable oil trade flows.
Indonesian Palm Oil Export Performance
Indonesian palm oil exports posted strong growth in February 2025, reaching 2.69 million tonnes versus 2.3 million tonnes a year earlier. Over October–February 2025/26, exports totaled 12.23 million tonnes, a 19% increase from 10.29 million tonnes in the same period of 2024/25, underscoring Indonesia’s expanding role in global vegetable oil supply.
Key Import Markets and Volume Shifts
China has emerged as the dominant growth driver, with February imports from Indonesia rising to 521,000 tonnes from 277,000 tonnes a year earlier. India lifted February purchases to 410,000 tonnes from 351,000 tonnes, while the EU increased imports slightly to 232,000 tonnes from 222,000 tonnes. Pakistan was the main outlier, with February volumes down to 209,000 tonnes from 360,000 tonnes year-on-year.
| Period / Destination | 2024/25 or Prior (tonnes) | 2025/26 or Latest (tonnes) | % Change* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Indonesia Exports (February) | 2,300,000 | 2,690,000 | +17% |
| Total Indonesia Exports (Oct–Feb) | 10,290,000 | 12,230,000 | +19% |
| China (February) | 277,000 | 521,000 | +88% |
| India (February) | 351,000 | 410,000 | +17% |
| EU (February) | 222,000 | 232,000 | +5% |
| Pakistan (February) | 360,000 | 209,000 | -42% |
| China (Oct–Feb) | 1,270,000 | 2,300,000 | +81% |
| Pakistan (Oct–Feb) | 1,520,000 | 1,590,000 | +5% |
| India (Oct–Feb) | 1,610,000 | 1,440,000 | -11% |
| EU (Oct–Feb) | 820,000 | 1,040,000 | +27% |
*Percent changes are rounded and based on reported volumes.
Implications for Global Vegetable Oil and Freight Markets
The surge in Indonesian palm oil exports is neutral to bearish for Black Sea vegetable oil flows. Greater palm oil availability at competitive prices intensifies competition with Black Sea sunflower oil in China and the EU, where China’s 81% jump in Indonesian purchases is particularly significant. This may cap demand growth for Black Sea origins on Asia-bound routes, potentially softening freight rates and pressuring margins. Market participants should watch whether elevated palm oil exports translate into broader weakness in global vegetable oil prices, which would further challenge Black Sea sunflower oil competitiveness.
Source: Market Data
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