- Ukraine’s total grain and legume exports in 2025/26 MY are down 24.6% year-on-year to 22.32 million tons as of March 2.
- Wheat exports surpassed 9 million tons but remain 24.7% below last season’s pace.
- Corn continues to dominate Ukraine’s export mix at 11.538 million tons, though volumes are also lower versus 2024/25 MY.
- Broad-based declines across wheat, corn, barley, rye, and flour point to systemic production or logistical constraints.
- Export tightness is moderately bullish for Black Sea wheat prices if demand from key importers stays firm.
Ukraine Grain Export Overview
Ukraine’s grain export campaign for the 2025/26 marketing year has slowed sharply versus last season. As of March 2, total exports of grain and leguminous crops reached 22.32 million tons, compared with 29.608 million tons at the comparable March 5 date in 2024/25 MY, a year-on-year decline of 24.6%.
Export Volumes by Commodity
| Commodity | 2025/26 MY Exports (as of early March, mln tons) |
2024/25 MY Exports (as of early March, mln tons) |
Change (mln tons) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain & legumes | 22.320 | 29.608 | -7.288 | -24.6% |
| Wheat | 9.124 | 12.115 | -2.991 | -24.7% |
| Corn | 11.538 | 14.924 | -3.386 | -22.7% |
| Barley | 1.351 | 2.126 | -0.775 | -36.5% |
| Rye | 0.0002 | 0.0108 | -0.0106 | -98.1% |
Flour Export Dynamics
| Product | 2025/26 MY Exports (as of early March, tons) |
2024/25 MY Exports (as of early March, tons) |
Change (tons) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total flour | 43,100 | 49,000 | -5,900 | -12.0% |
| Wheat flour | 41,900 | 45,200 | -3,300 | -7.3% |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
The broad-based contraction in Ukraine’s grain and flour exports points to tighter Black Sea supply, particularly for wheat. With wheat volumes down nearly 3 million tons and similar percentage declines across corn and barley, the data suggest systemic production or logistical constraints rather than crop-specific issues.
This reduced export flow is likely to provide underlying support for Black Sea wheat prices in the near term, assuming demand from traditional importers in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia remains stable. If the slower export pace persists through the remainder of 2025/26 MY, additional demand may shift toward competing origins such as Russia and Romania, reinforcing a moderately bullish tone for regional wheat values.
Source: Market Data
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