- Exports Softening: Malaysian palm oil exports fell 9.7% year-over-year in 2025 to 15.26 million tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers including India, China, the EU, and Turkey.
- Price Competitiveness: Palm oil now trades at a steep discount of $250/tonne to sunflower oil and $100/tonne to soybean oil, enhancing its appeal in price-sensitive markets.
- Short-Term Rebound: Early January 2025 data show an 18–19% month-over-month jump in Malaysian exports, supported by accumulated stocks and improved pricing.
- Black Sea Pressure: Competitive palm oil pricing is neutral to bearish for the Black Sea oilseed complex, particularly sunflower oil exports into Asia and Africa.
- Flaxseed Diversification: Russian flaxseed exports to China surged 50% in 2025 to 801,600 tonnes, signaling deeper Black Sea participation in Chinese oilseed demand.
Palm Oil Export Performance
Malaysia’s palm oil exports weakened in 2025, with total shipments declining to 15.26 million tonnes from 16.9 million tonnes in 2024. December 2025 exports were 1.32 million tonnes, slightly below 1.34 million tonnes a year earlier, underscoring persistent demand softness despite attractive pricing.
| Year | Malaysian Palm Oil Exports (million tonnes) | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16.90 | – |
| 2025 | 15.26 | -9.7% |
Key Destination Markets
Most major destination markets reduced purchases of Malaysian palm oil in 2025, with India, China, the EU, and Turkey all registering notable declines. The Philippines was a key exception, modestly increasing its imports. Asia’s overall share of Malaysian exports slipped from 63% to 60% as more volumes were redirected to African buyers.
| Destination | 2024 Imports (million tonnes) | 2025 Imports (million tonnes) | Change (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 3.03 | 2.66 | -0.37 |
| China | 1.39 | 0.89 | -0.50 |
| EU | 1.29 | 1.03 | -0.26 |
| Turkey | 0.905 | 0.746 | -0.159 |
| Philippines | 0.687 | 0.723 | +0.036 |
Despite the annual contraction, early January 2025 data point to an 18–19% month-over-month rebound in Malaysian exports, driven by accumulated reserves and increasingly attractive palm oil pricing relative to competing vegetable oils.
Palm Oil Price Competitiveness
Palm oil has reached multi-year competitive pricing levels versus other major vegetable oils. The sharp discount to sunflower and soybean oil is expected to support incremental demand, especially in cost-sensitive markets in Asia and Africa.
| Commodity | Relative Price vs. Palm Oil | Palm Oil Discount |
|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | +$250/tonne | $250/tonne cheaper than sunflower oil |
| Soybean Oil | +$100/tonne | $100/tonne cheaper than soybean oil |
Indonesia’s decision to postpone its B50 biofuel mandate by at least one year should keep more palm oil available for export, capping upside on FOB prices but reinforcing competitiveness versus Black Sea and South American vegetable oils.
Regional Palm Oil Shipments
Combined palm oil exports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand fell to a nine-year low of 10.4 million tonnes in September–November 2025, down 0.9 million tonnes year-over-year. Tighter regional flows have limited supply pressure even as prices remain discounted to rival oils.
| Period | Regional Shipments (million tonnes) | Year-over-Year Change (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| Sep–Nov 2024 | 11.30 | – |
| Sep–Nov 2025 | 10.40 | -0.90 |
Russian Flaxseed Exports to China
Russian flaxseed exports to China expanded strongly in 2025, highlighting a growing diversification of Black Sea oilseed flows. China is deepening its sourcing from Russia, with new regional suppliers such as Tatarstan entering the market.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Russian Flaxseed Exports to China (tonnes) | ~534,400 | 801,600 | +50% |
| December Exports to China (tonnes) | 58,500 | 120,500 | +106% |
| Tatarstan Certified Shipment to China (tonnes) | 0 | 11,600 | New supplier |
Market Impact and Outlook
The current configuration is neutral to bearish for the Black Sea oilseed complex. Palm oil’s widening discount to sunflower oil exerts competitive pressure on Black Sea sunflower exports into price-sensitive regions. However, delays to Indonesia’s B50 mandate help prevent a collapse in palm prices, preserving some support for alternative oils. At the same time, the robust growth in Russian flaxseed exports to China indicates that Black Sea producers are reshaping trade flows to capture demand in the Chinese market, partially offsetting the headwinds from cheaper palm oil.
Source: Market Data
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