- Bullish: Ukrainian seaports moved 44.2 million tons of agricultural products in 2025, achieving over 95% of planned cargo turnover despite heavy security disruptions.
- Bearish: Ukrainian road exports collapsed 65% month-on-month in January 2025, signaling acute strain on alternative land corridors and higher inland logistics risk.
- Bullish: Container shipping via Ukrainian ports rose 66% year-on-year to 215,748 TEU, underscoring resilient international connectivity.
- Bearish: A pronounced shift from grain to processed oilseed products in road flows highlights cost pressures and limited capacity for bulk grain via land routes.
- Mixed: Russia’s expanding sugar and grain export programs are increasing competition for Black Sea logistics, potentially tightening regional freight capacity.
Black Sea Logistics and Market Update
Ukrainian seaports delivered a robust performance in 2025, achieving more than 95% of planned cargo turnover under extreme operating conditions. The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority reported that agricultural products accounted for 44.2 million tons, or 53.7% of total throughput, with exports reaching buyers in 55 countries. Container traffic surged 66% year-on-year to 215,748 TEU, up from 129,902 TEU, signaling sustained demand for seaborne logistics despite security risks.
Security pressures remained intense. In the Odesa region alone, port activity was repeatedly interrupted by more than 800 air raid sirens over the year, resulting in over a month of cumulative downtime tied to infrastructure damage and operational suspensions.
In stark contrast, Ukrainian agricultural exports via road transport contracted sharply at the start of 2025. Average daily shipments in January dropped 65% to 3,700 tons per day from 10,400 tons in December, according to APK-Inform. During the first week of January, road shipments totaled just 22,800 tons—three times lower than in the comparable period of December—highlighting the fragility of overland export channels.
The commodity mix in road flows shifted decisively toward higher-value oilseed products. Soybeans led cross-border movements with 3,200 tons, followed by soybean meal at 1,900 tons and soybean oil at 1,350 tons, while grain shipments were largely absent. This reflects a focus on maximizing value per ton where land logistics remain viable.
Regional Trade Flows: Kazakhstan and Russia
Regional grain trade patterns also shifted. Kazakhstan’s imports of Russian grain reached 68,600 tons in November 2025, a 541% surge from 10,700 tons in November 2024, with a total value of $10.8 million. Wheat dominated at 54,700 tons, while barley (10,900 tons) and corn (1,400 tons) made up the remainder, suggesting either tighter domestic supply in Kazakhstan or aggressive Russian export pricing.
Russia’s sugar export program expanded notably in 2025. Shipments exceeded 1 million tons for the calendar year, an 18% year-on-year increase, generating $660 million in revenue, up 14%. Despite drought conditions in southern regions, Russia harvested 43.6 million tons of sugar beets, supporting sugar production of 6.4–6.5 million tons and underpinning future export capacity.
According to the federal center Agroexport, Russia’s sugar export potential for the 2025/26 agricultural year (August–July) is estimated at 1.4–1.5 million tons, potentially matching the 2019/20 record of 1.5 million tons. This expansion could increase competition for vessel space and logistics resources in Black Sea ports already handling substantial grain and oilseed volumes.
Key Data Summary
| Indicator | Period / Context | Value | Change / Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukrainian seaport cargo plan fulfillment | 2025 | >95% | of planned turnover |
| Ukrainian agricultural cargo via seaports | 2025 | 44.2 million tons | 53.7% of total throughput |
| Container throughput (TEU) | 2025 vs 2024 | 215,748 vs 129,902 | +66% year-on-year |
| Odesa region air raid sirens | 2025 | >800 alerts | >1 month cumulative downtime |
| Road export volume (daily average) | Dec 2024 | 10,400 tons/day | Baseline |
| Road export volume (daily average) | Jan 2025 | 3,700 tons/day | -65% vs December |
| Road exports, first week of month | Dec 2024 vs Jan 2025 | Jan: 22,800 tons | 3x lower than December |
| Soybeans (road exports) | Early Jan 2025 | 3,200 tons | Leading commodity |
| Soybean meal (road exports) | Early Jan 2025 | 1,900 tons | Secondary volume |
| Soybean oil (road exports) | Early Jan 2025 | 1,350 tons | Higher value product |
| Kazakhstan imports of Russian grain | Nov 2025 | 68,600 tons | +541% vs 10,700 tons in Nov 2024 |
| Value of Kazakh grain imports from Russia | Nov 2025 | $10.8 million | — |
| Russian sugar exports | 2025 (calendar) | >1 million tons | +18% year-on-year |
| Revenue from Russian sugar exports | 2025 (calendar) | $660 million | +14% year-on-year |
| Russian sugar export potential | 2025/26 agri-year | 1.4–1.5 million tons | Near 2019/20 record |
| Russian sugar beet harvest | 2025 | 43.6 million tons | Supports 6.4–6.5 million tons sugar |
Market Analysis and Sentiment
Ukrainian maritime logistics have remained surprisingly resilient, keeping seaborne export programs largely intact despite persistent security shocks. However, the 65% month-on-month collapse in road exports, combined with an apparent preference for higher-value oilseed products over bulk grains, underscores the structural limitations of overland corridors. With an estimated 25% of Ukrainian processing capacity currently idle due to logistical constraints, export availability and timing are likely to stay volatile.
In the broader Black Sea region, Kazakhstan’s surge in Russian grain imports and Russia’s growing sugar export footprint point to intensifying competition for freight and port capacity. As sugar, grain, and oilseeds increasingly vie for the same vessels and terminals, freight rates and execution risks may rise, particularly during seasonal peaks. Overall market sentiment is mixed: robust Ukrainian seaborne flows are supportive, but elevated security risks and inland bottlenecks are bearish for logistics reliability and costs.
Source: Market Data
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