- Kazakhstan targets at least 6.5% trade volume growth by 2026, leveraging wholesale grain exports and new B2B digital trading platforms.
- Planned repairs of 11,000 km of roads, new railway lines, and three airports aim to cut logistics bottlenecks and support freight growth.
- Krasnoyarsk Krai wheat exports collapsed 4.5x in 2025, while value-added rapeseed oil and cake exports gained share.
- Shift toward domestic processing in Russia may tighten Black Sea feed wheat availability but increase oilseed product exports.
- Net impact is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea freight rates as Kazakhstan’s export capacity offsets some Russian volume loss.
Kazakhstan Trade and Infrastructure Strategy
Kazakhstan plans to increase overall trade volumes by at least 6.5% by 2026, with wholesale grain exports positioned as a primary growth engine. A central pillar of the strategy is the launch of B2B electronic trading platforms this year to facilitate direct producer-to-buyer deliveries, reduce intermediary margins, and improve pricing transparency.
Regulatory changes will require at least 30% of trading space to be allocated to domestic Kazakh products, supporting local producers and reinforcing internal demand. Transportation and warehousing sectors are projected to grow 6.1% in Q1 2026, underpinned by substantial infrastructure investments, including the repair of 11,000 km of roads and completion of the Kyzylzhar-Moiynty and Darbaza-Maktaaral railway lines.
Additional capacity will come from the opening of three new airports in Zaysan, Katon-Karagay, and Kenderli, which should improve connectivity, support regional trade flows, and strengthen Kazakhstan’s role in Black Sea–linked export corridors.
Krasnoyarsk Grain and Oilseed Export Dynamics
In 2025, Krasnoyarsk Krai exported a total of 241,300 tons of grain and oilseeds, a decline of 24.3% year-over-year. Wheat exports dropped most sharply to 27,200 tons, representing a 4.5-fold decrease versus 2024. Rapeseed remained the leading export at 71,900 tons (down 3.4% year-on-year), followed by oats at 43,000 tons.
The region’s export structure is shifting toward higher value-added products. Rapeseed oil exports to China reached 19,200 tons, while rapeseed cake shipments surged 2.3 times to 16,500 tons, underscoring stronger crush margins and a strategic move toward domestic processing.
| Region / Product | Indicator | 2025 Volume (tons) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnoyarsk Krai – Total grain & oilseeds | Exports | 241,300 | -24.3% |
| Krasnoyarsk Krai – Wheat | Exports | 27,200 | 4.5x lower vs 2024 |
| Krasnoyarsk Krai – Rapeseed | Exports | 71,900 | -3.4% |
| Krasnoyarsk Krai – Oats | Exports | 43,000 | n/a |
| Krasnoyarsk Krai – Rapeseed oil to China | Exports | 19,200 | n/a |
| Krasnoyarsk Krai – Rapeseed cake | Exports | 16,500 | +2.3x |
| Kazakhstan – Trade volume | Target growth by 2026 | n/a | +6.5% minimum |
| Kazakhstan – Transport & warehousing | Projected growth Q1 2026 | n/a | +6.1% |
| Kazakhstan – Road network | Repairs planned | 11,000 km | Capacity boost |
Market and Freight Rate Implications
Kazakhstan’s infrastructure modernization addresses long-standing freight bottlenecks that have constrained Black Sea–oriented grain flows. Completion of key railway lines, combined with improved road and airport networks, should enhance logistics efficiency, reduce transit times, and narrow basis differentials for Kazakh-origin cargoes competing with Russian and Ukrainian supplies.
The sharp decline in Krasnoyarsk wheat exports highlights Russia’s pivot toward domestic processing, which, if mirrored by other regions, could tighten the availability of exportable feed wheat from the Black Sea. At the same time, expanding exports of rapeseed oil and meal suggest strengthening crush margins and rising regional processing capacity, factors that could weigh on raw oilseed prices over time.
On balance, the outlook for Black Sea freight is neutral to slightly bullish. Reduced Russian grain export volumes may be partly offset by Kazakhstan’s growing export capacity, keeping overall regional freight demand relatively resilient.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply