Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise as Hryvnia Weakens

• Hryvnia prices rise: Milling and feed wheat bids at Greater Odesa ports climbed to UAH 10,000-10,600/tonne (CRT) as the currency weakened.
• Dollar prices steady: USD-denominated bids for Ukrainian wheat held in the USD 206-216/tonne range, preserving export competitiveness.
• Logistics pressure: Overloaded networks, port restrictions, and higher tariffs from Russian attacks are lifting domestic cost bases.
• Neutral to marginally bullish: Stable dollar prices with rising local returns support farmer revenues but margin gains are limited by transport costs.

Ukrainian Wheat Market Update

Ukrainian wheat prices at Greater Odesa ports showed a clear split between local currency and dollar quotes this week. While USD bids for milling and feed wheat were broadly unchanged, hryvnia-denominated prices moved higher as logistics issues intensified and the national currency hit historic lows against the dollar.

According to APK-Inform, trader bids for grades 2 and 3 milling wheat were largely flat in dollar terms, holding in a relatively narrow range that keeps Ukrainian origin competitive in global trade. Feed wheat values also tracked sideways in USD, signalling stable export demand despite ongoing infrastructure disruptions.

In contrast, domestic prices at ports increased notably in hryvnia. Offers for milling wheat climbed to UAH 10,200-10,600 per tonne on a CRT basis, while feed wheat reached UAH 10,000-10,400 per tonne, with the upper bound of these ranges seeing the sharpest week-on-week adjustments.

The upward move in local prices reflects tightening supply chain conditions. Ukrainian grain flows are being constrained by overloaded logistics corridors, stricter limits on grain reception at ports, and sharply higher transport tariffs following Russia’s sustained attacks on critical infrastructure. These factors are raising the cost of moving grain to export terminals at the same time that the hryvnia has weakened to new record lows versus the US dollar.

From a market tone perspective, the setup is neutral to marginally bullish. Stable dollar prices mean Ukrainian wheat remains attractively priced for international buyers, which should help maintain export volumes. For farmers and inland traders, higher hryvnia prices translate into improved nominal revenues, provided they can secure logistics capacity. However, elevated freight and handling costs are absorbing much of the benefit, limiting net margin expansion along the domestic supply chain.

Price Overview

Logistics and Currency Context

Infrastructure disruptions are a key driver behind the current price structure. Russia’s repeated attacks on Ukrainian transport and energy assets have led to overloaded alternative routes, higher risk premiums, and rising freight tariffs. Port operators have tightened grain acceptance policies, effectively rationing scarce capacity. Simultaneously, the hryvnia’s slide to historic lows amplifies the gap between stable dollar prices and rising local-currency returns, reinforcing the divergence between international and domestic price dynamics.

Source: Market Data