- Bearish for Black Sea Wheat: Argentina’s record 27.1–27.7 MMT wheat crop and aggressive FOB offers at $206–209/ton for January delivery are undercutting Black Sea, French, and U.S. origins.
- Neutral to Bullish for Russian Logistics: Russia’s National Commodity Exchange is launching a new wheat spot trading platform with priority rail access to Novorossiysk, potentially strengthening export logistics and basis values.
- Trade Flow Shift Risk: China’s ~65,000-ton Argentine wheat purchase revives a dormant trade route and could divert demand away from traditional Black Sea suppliers.
- Logistical Bottlenecks in Argentina: Record truck deliveries to Rosario (2 MMT in November) highlight short-term congestion but also reinforce near-term export availability and price pressure.
Argentina Production Surge and Price Impact
Argentina is on pace for a record wheat harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year, sharply increasing exportable supply and pressuring global prices. The Rosario Grain Exchange now pegs production at 27.7 million tons, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) has lifted its forecast from 25.5 million tons to 27.1 million tons. Harvest progress accelerated by 13 percentage points over the past week to reach 73.3% completion, bringing a rapid wave of new-crop wheat to market.
The surge in volume is straining Argentina’s logistics. Farmers are moving aggressively to clear on-farm storage, pushing truck deliveries to the Rosario river terminal to a record 2 million tons in November—nearly double typical levels. This front-loaded flow is translating into highly competitive export offers, with January FOB values quoted around $206–209/ton, well below comparable Black Sea, French, and U.S. origins and exerting direct downward pressure on global benchmark prices.
Argentina’s pricing power is being reinforced by renewed demand from China. State-owned Cofco International has purchased approximately 65,000 tons of Argentine wheat, marking the first significant commercial shipment between the two countries since the 1990s. If quality holds and logistics remain manageable, additional Chinese buying could further entrench Argentina as a key competitor to Black Sea suppliers in Asia and the Middle East.
Russian Exchange Development and Logistics
Russia is moving to modernize its wheat marketing infrastructure through the National Commodity Exchange (NCE). Registration for wheat trading opened on December 22, with spot operations scheduled to begin on January 19, 2026. The platform will initially focus on grade 4 wheat with 12.5% protein, traded via a bilateral anonymous auction format designed to improve price discovery and reduce counterparty risk.
The exchange will support two delivery methods: rail deliveries with a minimum lot size of 70 tons and road deliveries with a minimum of 30 tons. All contracts are structured on a CPT Novorossiysk basis, covering the KSK grain terminal, the Novorossiysk grain terminal, and the Novorossiysk grain plant. Crucially, exchange-traded lots will receive priority access to rail transportation through integration with Russian Railways’ Digital Logistics platform, which could enhance shipment reliability and potentially support basis levels at Novorossiysk even amid intensifying global price competition.
Price and Volume Snapshot
| Region / Commodity | Metric | Latest Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina Wheat | Rosario production forecast (2025/26) | 27.7 million tons |
| Argentina Wheat | BAGE production forecast (2025/26) | 27.1 million tons |
| Argentina Wheat | Harvest progress | 73.3% complete |
| Argentina Wheat | Truck deliveries to Rosario (November) | 2.0 million tons |
| Argentina Wheat | FOB price, January delivery | $206–209/ton |
| Argentina–China Trade | Recent Cofco purchase | ~65,000 tons |
| Russia Wheat 12.5% | NCE spot trading start date | January 19, 2026 |
| Russia Wheat 12.5% | Rail delivery minimum lot | 70 tons |
| Russia Wheat 12.5% | Road delivery minimum lot | 30 tons |
Trading and Risk Perspective
For Black Sea exporters, Argentina’s low FOB offers at $206–209/ton pose an immediate bearish threat, particularly into price-sensitive markets in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The reopening of a commercial wheat channel from Argentina to China challenges Black Sea dominance in that corridor and could cap rallies unless weather or quality issues emerge in Argentina or other key origins.
For Russian exporters, the NCE’s new platform is a structural positive for logistics and transparency around Novorossiysk flows. Priority rail access and standardized CPT contracts may help sustain Russian wheat’s competitiveness on delivered basis, even if global flat prices come under pressure from Argentina’s record output. Traders should closely track Argentine quality reports, ongoing Chinese buying interest, and early liquidity patterns on the NCE to gauge how trade flows and regional basis values may evolve into 2026.
Source: Market Data
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