- Bearish: Argentine sunflower seed exports are projected to jump 246% year-on-year in 2025/26, easing global supply tightness.
- Bearish: New crushing capacity will lift Argentina’s seed processing to a record 5.4 million tonnes, boosting exports of sunflower oil and meal.
- Bearish: Increased Argentine flows into Europe, Africa, and the Black Sea region intensify competition and pressure prices for Black Sea exporters.
Argentine Sunflower Seeds Exports Surge
Argentina has sharply stepped up sunflower seed export activity, with two vessels totaling an estimated 50,000–60,000 tonnes departing in early December. One shipment was delivered to Portugal and another to South Africa, while a third cargo is scheduled to leave for the Black Sea region in late December or January, with the final discharge port yet to be confirmed.
For the October–September 2025/26 marketing year, analysts forecast Argentina’s sunflower seed exports at 460,000 tonnes, a 246% increase from 133,000 tonnes in the previous season. This represents a significant shift in Argentina’s role from primarily a processor to a more prominent seed supplier on the world market.
Crushing Capacity and Downstream Exports
Argentina’s expanding industrial capacity is central to this shift. New crushing lines coming online in early 2026 are expected to raise domestic sunflower seed processing volumes to a record 5.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, up from 4.4 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 3.7 million tonnes two seasons earlier.
The ramp-up in crushing will translate into higher exports of value-added products. Sunflower oil exports are projected at 1.83 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3 million tonnes year-on-year, while sunflower meal exports are forecast to reach 1.75 million tonnes, up 0.4 million tonnes from the prior season.
| Item | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (Forecast) | Change vs Previous Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Seed Exports (tonnes) | 133,000 | – | 460,000 | +246% |
| Seed Crushing Volume (tonnes) | 3,700,000 | 4,400,000 | 5,400,000 | +1,000,000 vs 2024/25 |
| Sunflower Oil Exports (tonnes) | – | 1,530,000 | 1,830,000 | +300,000 |
| Sunflower Meal Exports (tonnes) | – | 1,350,000 | 1,750,000 | +400,000 |
| December Seed Shipments (tonnes) | – | – | 50,000–60,000 | Initial surge |
Market Impact and Price Outlook
Market Impact: Bearish
The acceleration of Argentine sunflower seed and product exports adds much-needed volume to a market that had been tightened by production issues in the Northern Hemisphere. As Argentine supplies flow into Europe, Africa, and directly into the Black Sea region, traditional Black Sea exporters face intensified competition in their core outlets.
This competition is likely to cap rallies and exert short- to medium-term downward pressure on prices for sunflower seeds, oil, and meal. Traders should factor in growing South American participation and anticipate softer pricing dynamics as Argentina’s expanded crushing and export programs fully materialize over the 2025/26 season.
Source: Market Data
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