- Production Shock: Kyrgyzstan’s 2025 wheat output fell 26% year-on-year amid weaker yields, with total grain production down 15%.
- Yield Deterioration: Average grain yields dropped to 30 c/ha from 35.8 c/ha, driven by poorer performance in the key Chui and Talas regions.
- Barley Under Pressure: Barley production declined 26% to 474,000 tons, with yields sliding to 19.3 c/ha from 26.1 c/ha.
- Crop Mix Shift: Corn and rice provided modest offsets, with output up 5.1% and 17.6% respectively, highlighting diversification away from wheat and barley.
- Market Impact: The shortfall is Neutral to slightly Bullish for Black Sea wheat exporters as Kyrgyzstan’s import needs from Kazakhstan and regional origins edge higher.
Kyrgyzstan 2025 Grain Harvest Overview
Kyrgyzstan’s 2025 grain harvest closed with a marked decline in output across core cereals. According to the National Statistics Committee, total grain production (excluding legumes, rice, and buckwheat) reached 1.8 million tons in initial recorded weight, a 15% decrease versus 2024. Wheat and barley were the main drags, each posting a 26% year-on-year contraction despite a slight expansion in harvested area.
The total harvested area for grain edged up 1.1% to 606,000 hectares, but this was more than offset by weaker productivity. Average grain yields fell 16% to about 30 centners per hectare, down from 35.8 c/ha last season. The Chui region, which normally underpins national supply and accounts for around 35% of total grain production, harvested over 640,000 tons of grain, including 180,000 tons of wheat and 171,400 tons of barley. Lower yields in both Chui and Talas were cited as the key drivers of the national output decline.
Crop Performance and Yield Dynamics
| Indicator | 2025 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain output (excl. legumes, rice, buckwheat) | 1.8 mln t | ≈2.12 mln t | -15% |
| Wheat production | Not stated (−26% y/y) | — | -26% |
| Barley production | 474,000 t | ≈641,000 t | -26% |
| Harvested grain area | 606,000 ha | ≈599,400 ha | +1.1% |
| Average grain yield | 30.0 c/ha | 35.8 c/ha | -16% |
| Barley yield | 19.3 c/ha | 26.1 c/ha | -26% |
| Corn production | 845,000 t | ≈804,000 t | +5.1% |
| Rice production | 59,000 t | ≈50,000 t | +17.6% |
| Chui region total grain | 640,000+ t | — | — |
| Chui wheat | 180,000 t | — | — |
| Chui barley | 171,400 t | — | — |
Despite the overall weakness in cereals, there were notable bright spots among alternative crops. Corn output rose 5.1% to 845,000 tons, while rice production increased 17.6% to 59,000 tons. This partially offsets the loss in wheat and barley volumes and suggests some rotation into crops better suited to current weather or input conditions.
Regional and Market Implications
Although Kyrgyzstan is not a major Black Sea grain exporter, the 2025 harvest results underscore broader weather and yield challenges across Central Asia. The 26% contraction in wheat and barley output is likely to lift Kyrgyzstan’s import requirements, primarily from neighboring Kazakhstan and, at the margin, from Black Sea origins.
Given the country’s relatively small footprint in global grain trade, the direct impact on international balances is limited. However, incremental demand from Kyrgyzstan should provide marginal support to regional wheat flows and pricing, especially for exporters targeting Central Asian markets. Overall, the news is best characterized as Neutral to slightly Bullish for Black Sea wheat exporters.
Source: Market Data
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