- Wheat under pressure: U.S. and European wheat futures fell (CBOT March SRW -1.6% to $191.34/t), though U.S. wheat exports remain 21.9% above last year, signaling resilient global demand.
- Corn export strength: U.S. corn futures slipped only modestly, while exports for 2025/26 surged 68.74% year-over-year to 22.5 million tonnes, tightening competition for Black Sea origins.
- Oilseeds mixed: Soybean futures weakened and U.S. shipments lag 46.3% behind last year despite strong Chinese buying, but sunflower seed prices in South Africa edged higher and sunflower oil values held steady.
- Regional implications: Price softness in wheat and soybeans is broadly bearish for Black Sea grains in the short term, while strong U.S. corn exports and mixed oilseed dynamics create both headwinds and niche opportunities for Black Sea exporters.
Global Grain Market Overview
Global grain markets moved lower on December 15, 2025, led by declines in U.S. and European wheat futures and softer soybean prices, while corn posted only modest losses amid exceptionally strong U.S. export demand. Sunflower markets were comparatively steady, with a small gain in South African sunflower seed prices and flat Rotterdam sunflower oil values.
U.S. Wheat and Export Performance
U.S. wheat futures faced broad-based pressure across major exchanges. Chicago soft red winter wheat, Kansas City hard red winter wheat, and Minneapolis hard spring wheat all closed lower, mirroring weakness in European milling wheat on MATIF. Despite the price declines, weekly export inspections and cumulative marketing year data confirmed that U.S. wheat remains competitive, with total shipments running nearly 22% ahead of last year, even as the latest weekly export sales came in below market expectations.
| Contract / Market | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT March Soft Red Winter Wheat | $191.34/t | -1.6% (-8.5 cents) | Broad-based U.S. wheat weakness |
| Kansas City March Hard Red Winter Wheat | $188.12/t | -6 cents | Pressure alongside CBOT contracts |
| Minneapolis March Hard Spring Wheat | $209.34/t | -7 cents | Spring wheat follows broader downtrend |
| Paris MATIF March Milling Wheat | $220.42/t | -0.65% | European wheat tracks U.S. weakness |
| Weekly U.S. Wheat Export Inspections | 488,025 t | — | Major buyers: Philippines, Mexico, South Korea |
| Cumulative 2025/26 U.S. Wheat Exports | 14.124 million t | +21.9% YoY | Robust global demand versus last year |
| Weekly U.S. Wheat Export Sales | 361,715 t | Below 300,000–750,000 t forecast range | Soft near-term demand indicators |
U.S. Corn: Modest Price Decline, Strong Exports
U.S. corn futures slipped only marginally, even as export data underscored exceptional overseas demand. Weekly exports were strong, led by shipments to Mexico, Japan, and Spain, and cumulative 2025/26 exports are nearly 69% higher than a year ago. Weekly export sales also exceeded trader expectations, reinforcing the bullish export narrative despite the day’s small futures loss.
| Metric | Volume / Price | Change | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT March Corn Futures | $173.13/t | -0.22% | Modest decline on the day |
| Weekly U.S. Corn Exports (w/e Dec 11) | 1.589 million t | — | Key buyers: Mexico, Japan, Spain |
| Cumulative 2025/26 U.S. Corn Exports | 22.501 million t | +68.74% YoY | Strong year-over-year export growth |
| Weekly U.S. Corn Export Sales (w/e Nov 20) | 1.84 million t | Above 1.1–2.2 million t forecast range | Sales outpace market expectations |
Oilseed Complex: Soybeans Softer, Sunflower Steady
The oilseed complex was mixed. Soybean futures eased despite sizable Chinese buying, as cumulative U.S. soybean shipments remain sharply behind last year amid aggressive Brazilian competition and near-complete planting progress in Brazil. By contrast, sunflower-related markets were more stable, with a slight uptick in South African sunflower seed prices and flat Rotterdam sunflower oil values, indicating ongoing regional demand support.
| Commodity / Metric | Price / Volume | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT January Soybeans | $393.79/t | -0.46% | Weaker despite continued Chinese demand |
| Private U.S. Soybean Sale to China | 136,000 t | — | Confirmed by USDA |
| Weekly U.S. Soybean Export Sales | 2.232 million t | — | China accounted for 2.14 million t |
| Cumulative 2025/26 U.S. Soybean Shipments | 13.702 million t | -46.3% YoY | Significant lag versus prior year |
| Brazil Soybean Planting Progress (Dec 11) | 97% complete | — | Signals strong upcoming Brazilian supply |
| SAFEX Sunflower Seed | 9,575 ZAR/t | +0.21% | Marginal price gain |
| Rotterdam FOB Sunflower Oil | $1,360/t | Unchanged | Stable refined oil values |
Implications for Black Sea Grains and Oilseeds
For Black Sea wheat, the synchronized declines in U.S. and European futures are neutral to slightly bearish in the near term, as they cap price upside; however, the 21.9% rise in U.S. wheat exports also signals solid global demand that could underpin competitive Black Sea pricing. In corn, the picture is decisively bearish for Black Sea exporters: the 68.74% jump in U.S. exports, concentrated in key destination markets such as Mexico and Japan, intensifies competition and narrows market share opportunities for Ukrainian and Russian origin corn.
Oilseed dynamics are more nuanced. Global soybean weakness and large South American supplies can weigh on the broader oilseed complex, including sunflower. Even so, the modest gain in South African sunflower seed and steady Rotterdam sunflower oil prices point to resilient regional demand. The sharp 46.3% decline in U.S. soybean shipments versus last year creates scope for Black Sea sunflower and other oilseed products to capture incremental demand, especially in markets seeking diversified protein and vegetable oil sources.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply