Category: Wheat

Russia Export Upgrade: IGC raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 44.2 million tons, the first upward revision in five months, supported by a higher harvest estimate of 87.6 million tons. EU Export Downgrade: EU wheat export outlook was cut to 31.3 million tons, further widening Russia’s competitive advantage in global wheat markets. Saudi Buying…

Production Boost: IKAR raised Russian wheat export potential to 46.5 million tonnes on the back of a larger-than-expected 139.4 million tonne grain harvest, including 91.4 million tonnes of wheat. Logistics Constraint: A record-low 57% share of wheat from southern export hubs creates complex and potentially costly logistics that may cap actual exports near 44 million…

Exports Down 10%: Russian wheat shipments fell to 26.7 million tons in Jul–Dec 2025 from a record 29.7 million tons a year earlier. Turkey & Iran Step Up Buying: Turkey’s imports jumped 2.2x to 4.4 million tons, while Iran’s surged 2.9x to 1.7 million tons, moving it to third place. Diversifying Demand: Pakistan forecasts 1.5…

Russian exports: January 2025 wheat exports projected at 2.8–3.0 million tons, up 12–20% year-on-year. Saudi demand: GFSA issues a 595,000-ton milling wheat tender (12.5% protein, any origin) closing January 16. Shift in buyers: Turkey and Iran sharply increase Russian wheat imports after domestic crop shortfalls. Competitive pressure: Bangladesh reduces Russian purchases amid stronger competition from…

USDA upgrade: Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast raised to 9.5 million tonnes on stronger early-season shipments. Export surge: September–November 2025 wheat exports jumped 29% year-on-year to 2.34 million tonnes. Uzbekistan demand: Uzbekistan imported 1.47 million tonnes of Kazakh wheat in three months, cementing its role as Kazakhstan’s key buyer. Ample regional supply: Stable Kazakh production…

Crop resilience: Winter wheat in southern and southeastern Kazakhstan overwintered safely in early January, with no reported freeze damage. Weather support: Air temperatures ran 2–4°C above normal, maintaining tillering node temperatures mostly above critical thresholds across key regions. Moisture risk: Below-normal precipitation and thin snow cover (<5 cm) in some areas pose localized risk if…

Bullish: Weather-related production risks in the Black Sea and US wheat belt, combined with recovering import demand, are supportive for Ukrainian wheat prices. Bearish: Ongoing military risks and port infrastructure disruptions in Ukraine continue to constrain export flows and limit near-term shipment volumes. Market Update Ukrainian wheat exports remained muted in December as security risks…

Production upgrade: USDA FAS raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat harvest forecast to 89.5 million tons (from 87.5 million), with carryover stocks up to 14.688 million tons. Exports steady: Wheat export forecast held at 44 million tons despite larger crop, below IKAR’s 46 million ton potential including Crimea. Near-term pressure: January shipments expected to slow on holidays,…

Domestic prices eased: Ukrainian feed and second-grade wheat prices weakened in early January amid subdued local demand and infrastructure disruptions. Export prices resilient: Port-based feed wheat prices firmed slightly, while milling wheat values remained stable, reflecting continued international interest. Logistics under pressure: Ongoing power outages and shelling of port infrastructure constrained operations and reduced trader…

USDA lifts global wheat output: 2025/26 global wheat production raised by 4.36 million tonnes to 842.17 million tonnes, led by larger Russian and Argentine crops. Exports edge higher: Global wheat exports forecast up to 219.76 million tonnes, with stronger Argentine shipments offsetting cuts to EU and Ukraine. Stocks build: Global ending stocks increased by 3.38…