Category: Wheat

Bullish: Expectations for slightly tighter U.S. wheat ending stocks in the upcoming USDA WASDE report could offer support to global wheat prices. Bearish: Strong French wheat crop conditions and a record Canadian canola harvest forecast are adding competitive pressure and weighing on futures. Neutral: Markets are largely in a holding pattern as traders await key…

Bearish wheat & corn: Russian export duties for wheat, corn, and barley are set to zero for December 10–16, increasing competitive Black Sea supply. Price pressure: Falling indicative prices for wheat and corn below the base level trigger zero duty, adding short-term downward pressure on global grain prices. Export incentive: Removal of the tax allows…

Bearish for Black Sea wheat: Thailand’s tender explicitly excludes Russian and Ukrainian origins, removing a key demand outlet. Steady demand for alternative origins: 240,000 tonnes of feed wheat secured on optional-origin terms, supporting exporters outside Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, and Pakistan. Forward demand visibility: Shipments scheduled across H1 2026 provide longer-term demand support for non-excluded suppliers.…

Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices have eased to $228–230/t FOB, their lowest level since mid-September. Growing competition from large expected wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina is pressuring global export prices lower. Slow farmer selling and relatively tight global wheat reserves are limiting further downside in international prices. Russian Wheat Prices Weaken on Southern…

Neutral: Forward purchase of 30,300 tonnes of US milling wheat by South Korean millers for February 2026 delivery provides long-term price signals but limited short-term market impact. Reference Pricing: FOB values between $243 and $277 per ton give a benchmark for future high-protein wheat pricing versus other origins. Steady Demand: The deal highlights ongoing, structural…

Algeria’s OAIC purchased around 900,000 tons of milling wheat in a major international tender. The deal was concluded at $255–256 per ton C&F, setting a fresh benchmark for upcoming tenders. Delivery is scheduled for February 2026 for Black Sea/European wheat and January 2026 for South American/Australian origins. Bullish: Large forward demand from a key North…

Bearish – Ukrainian prices: Milling wheat values at deep-sea and Danube ports are falling amid weak importer demand, logistics disruptions, and competition from cheaper feed wheat. Bearish – Global supply: Heavy Russian exports, strong Australian output, and a record harvest expected in Argentina are amplifying downward pressure on Ukrainian wheat prices. Bearish – Competitive quality:…

Ukrainian wheat stable: Prices are holding around $220/t CPT for milling wheat despite muted export activity. Potential Q1 2025 rally: Analysts see scope for Ukrainian wheat to rise to $245–255/t CPT on stronger seasonal demand. Kazakh price floor: Food Corporation’s 2025 procurement prices set a benchmark for wheat, barley, and oilseeds in the region. Neutral-to-bullish…

New Trade Flow: Kazakhstan exported 390,000 MT of wheat to Algeria between January and November 2025, a sharp increase from negligible volumes in prior years. State Support: Government freight subsidies and diplomatic engagement underpinned the competitiveness of Kazakh wheat into North Africa. Market Impact: The entry of Kazakhstan into Algeria, a 9 MMT/year importer, adds…

South Korea’s NOFI secured around 65,000 mt of feed wheat for delivery by April 2026 in an international tender. The tender explicitly excluded Russian, Argentine, Pakistani, Danish, and Chinese origins, signaling targeted supply-chain de-risking. The $261.65/t C&F price (plus $1.30/t unloading) acts as a long‑dated benchmark but is expected to have minimal impact on current…